I later realized that I can't hold onto spot positions, and my contracts keep getting liquidated. To be honest, it's not that I "don't understand," but that I was too confident in my positions: treating probabilities as certainties. Now I have a simple rule for myself—no matter what happens with any trade, the worst-case scenario won't prevent me from sleeping well and going to work tomorrow. If I can't do that, it means my position size is too large.

Recently, there's been a lot of attention on on-chain large transfers and unusual movements in exchange hot and cold wallets, as people try to spot "smart money." I also get tempted, but after setting reminders and limits for myself, that kind of anxiety really decreases: when I see unusual activity, my first reaction is no longer to rush in, but to check "how much I could lose at most on this trade, and whether I might start adding to my position recklessly if I start losing." When the alert sounds, it's like someone gently pulling me back: don't play the hero, first consider myself as a small node in the system. The secret to not getting liquidated mostly isn't in predictions, but in accepting that I will make mistakes.