⭐ BTC Today's Market Update

📌Technical Analysis: Yesterday we mentioned resistance above: 75,500-76,000, breaking through and stabilizing above 77,600. BTC found support near 74,200 yesterday and rebounded. This level is exactly the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the February 59800 wave this year. In the early morning, Trump confirmed that the US-Iran agreement is close to being reached, and the news drove the price sharply up to 77,500. As of now, the daily chart remains choppy near a critical level. This rebound is mostly driven by news, with increased volume but declining open interest during the rebound, indicating short covering and short-term trading dominance rather than healthy new bullish momentum. Daily indicators still lean weak; to confirm a reversal, BTC must re-establish and hold above 77,460. On the 4-hour chart, after encountering resistance at 77,460, the price retraced but did not break below 76,000, indicating support below. The 4-hour MACD and RSI have slightly improved but are not yet in strong zones. Currently, the 4-hour structure is a descending wedge after a low-level rebound. If it tests 77,460 again, the rebound quality will improve, aiming for 78,200. If it falls below 76,000 again, the rebound strength weakens, and a second bottoming test should be watched carefully.
📌Macroeconomic View: The news of the US-Iran agreement was the direct trigger for this rebound, but there is a notable contradiction: Axios reports clearly state that Iran has not yet confirmed the agreement details, and Trump’s statements vary in different occasions. There are still disagreements over reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This means the certainty of this "positive news" is somewhat discounted, as the market is digesting an unconfirmed expectation. Historically, such geopolitical news-driven rapid rallies tend to retrace most of the gains if there is no substantial follow-up progress.
📌Funding Environment: Spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced net outflows for six consecutive days, totaling $1.26 billion, marking the worst week since late January; Ethereum ETFs have fallen for 10 days straight. Jane Street significantly reduced its BTC ETF holdings by 70% in Q1, shifting to ETH ETFs. This institutional rebalancing is not short-term noise. Meanwhile, on-chain data shows that spot Bitcoin demand is decreasing at the fastest rate recently, with short-term holders selling at losses, realizing over $600 million in losses. All these point to a conclusion: institutions and smart money are not actively buying at this price range but are watching or even reducing their positions. Today’s key levels: Resistance above at 77,460 and 78,200, with a breakout targeting 79,400, strong resistance. Support below at 76,000 and 74,900, with a break below targeting 73,900.
Today's Strategy: Short-term focus on 77,460. All rallies in a bear market are false, often illusions. Our bearish outlook remains unchanged; the bottom is not yet in but will come eventually. #特朗普称美伊正敲定协议细节 $BTC