Recently, there's been more talk about "the expectation of rate cuts is coming, so we should rush in," and I find it a bit amusing... Macro stuff isn't destiny, it's probability. When interest rates go down, risk appetite indeed tends to increase, but the transmission to your positions is interrupted by a bunch of emotions and liquidity switches: first, whether big funds dare to leverage up, then whether the market is willing to pay for overvalued assets, and finally retail investors get excited.

Some people also bring up the dollar index, saying that whether the dollar rises or risk assets rise/fall, it doesn't matter. Basically, that's just a narrative catching up: when liquidity expectations change, correlation shifts accordingly, don’t treat a single indicator as the steering wheel.

I'm a bit more straightforward: when macro is relatively warm, I enlarge the "error-tolerant positions," and when it's tight, I pull back, preferring to miss out rather than hold on stubbornly. The result is a probability issue—position management is the part you can control. Anyway, after being educated by the market a few times, I’ve learned my lesson.