$NVDAX #NVDA

NVIDIA (NVDA) May 27 - May 30 Price Movement Forecast

Reminder: The following content is solely a personal review of the market and trend projection, and does not constitute any investment or financial advice.

1. Current Market Basic Status

Data as of: May 22 closing price 215.33

- 52-week price range: 132.92 — 236.54
- Current total market value: 5.3 trillion yuan
- Valuation level: TTM P/E ratio 33.0 times, forward P/E 17.0 times
- Volatility attribute: Beta value 2.24, belonging to high-volatility tech stocks, with very strong elasticity of rise and fall

Overall, NVIDIA is currently in a correction phase after reaching a high point this year. Valuation is not bubble-like, but the high volatility means short-term fluctuations will be very frequent.

2. Latest Earnings Report Review (after market close on May 20, Q1 FY2027)

This quarter’s NVIDIA earnings report can be said to have exceeded expectations across all data, with all core performance indicators delivering positive results:

- Total revenue of 81.6 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations by 3.4%, a year-on-year increase of 71%
- Net profit of 58.3 billion yuan, significantly exceeding expectations by 36%
- Core data center business revenue of 73.9 billion yuan, up 73% year-on-year, with strong growth momentum in AI computing power main business
- Overall gross margin maintained at an extremely high level of 78.3%, with very stable profitability

At the same time, the company provided impressive future guidance and return plans:

- Q2 revenue guidance of 87 billion yuan, significantly exceeding market expectations by 10%
- Implementation of a large-scale stock repurchase plan of 53k yuan, with dividend increased to 0.25

However, a typical market pattern of good news turning into a short-term decline appeared: the stock fell 3.64% over the two trading days after the earnings release, from 223.47 down to 215.33.
The core reason is very clear: the high growth and high expectations from this earnings report had already been priced in by the market beforehand. The market followed the classic “buy the rumor, sell the fact” pattern, and after the good news was realized, funds took profits and exited.

3. Current Technical Market Analysis

From technical indicators, the current bulls and bears are in a balanced struggle, with no clear trend:

1. RSI value 62.51, in a neutral to slightly strong zone, no overbought signal, with room for upward sentiment
2. MACD histogram turning negative, momentum weakening, short-term bullish drive insufficient, which is the core technical reason for recent adjustments
3. Price is within the middle band of Bollinger Bands, overall trend neutral, no obvious directional signal
4. 20-day volatility at 43.5%, high volatility environment persists, with large short-term fluctuations
5. ATR daily average volatility of 8.28, indicating that daily fluctuations of about ±8 dollars are normal
6. After earnings, trading volume is only slightly above average, indicating mild selling pressure rather than panic selling

Summary of technical view: Short-term bullish momentum is resting, but there is no sustained downward force, representing a benign high-level consolidation.

4. Key Support/Resistance Levels (Short-term core reference)

Strong Resistance

236.54 (year-to-date high, almost impossible to break through in one go)

Short-term Resistance

1. 225-227, recent high-pressure zone
2. 220, the short-term pressure at the 5-day moving average

Current Price: 215.33

Short-term Support

1. 210, the 20-day moving average, the most important technical support this week (holding it means consolidation, breaking it means deeper correction)
2. 200, psychological support at the round number

Strong Support

195, Bollinger Band lower band, the extreme low zone of this correction phase

5. Historical Patterns After Earnings (Quarterly Review)

Statistics of NVIDIA’s market performance after the last 8 quarterly earnings reports:

- Average decline of 0.85% on the day after earnings
- 50% chance of rise, 50% chance of fall, no fixed trend

Core practical rule: The magnitude of earnings surprises has no absolute correlation with short-term stock price movements.
Most common pattern: Earnings significantly beat expectations → the next day opens lower and declines to digest profits → stabilizes and recovers within 3-5 trading days. The current trend fully aligns with past historical patterns.

6. Core Influencing Factors for Next Week’s Market

Bullish support factors

1. Earnings beat expectations solidly, Q2 guidance is strong, with sufficient medium- and long-term earnings certainty
2. Major cloud service providers’ capital expenditure in 2026 increased by 77%, with continuous growth in AI computing demand
3. Core products of Blackwell and Vera Rubin are fully booked, with no signs of demand weakening
4. The 80B yuan buyback plan is in place, greatly limiting downside space and providing a clear bottom support
5. Most institutions are optimistic about the future, with 58 out of 61 analysts maintaining buy ratings, and the average target price at 278
6. Several top institutions continue to raise target prices, with high expectations of 413 and 500

Bearish suppression factors

1. Earnings beat expectations early, but market selling pressure has not been fully digested
2. Domestic market restrictions persist, with many potential markets unable to be realized
3. Google, Amazon, Meta’s self-developed AI chips continue to iterate, intensifying industry competition and squeezing NVIDIA’s market share
4. U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, with 10-year and 30-year yields soaring, suppressing high-tech stock valuations
5. Hedge funds significantly reduced holdings in Q1, with major funds showing short-term exit actions
6. Uncertainty in overseas tariff policies, causing emotional market disturbances

7. Next Week’s Overall Probability Trend Projection

Based on historical trends, technical structure, and capital sentiment:

- Overall upward probability 57.4%, downward probability 42.6%
- The probability of breaking through the 230 high in the short term is only 6.5%, very difficult
- The probability of falling below the 200 key support is only 1.7%, with minimal deep decline space

Full range probability reference:

- Extreme decline zone: 203.42 (down 5.5%)
- Significant decline zone: 206.20 (down 4.2%)
- Mild decline zone: 211.13 (down 2.0%)
- Neutral flat zone: 216.91 (up 0.7%)
- Mild rise zone: 222.81 (up 3.5%)
- Significant rise zone: 227.98 (up 5.9%)
- Extreme rise zone: 231.14 (up 7.3%)

8. Daily Short-term Forecast

After the holiday, funds will flow back into the market, and the market will reprice this earnings report. Opening volatility is expected to be large, with a probable ±2% fluctuation. Focus on the 210 core support; holding it ensures overall structural safety.

Tuesday (5.27)

If successfully holding the 210 support, short-term bulls will attempt to rebound, targeting the 220 moving average resistance.

Wednesday (5.28)

Mid-week, market sentiment stabilizes, volatility gradually declines, mainly narrow-range consolidation.

Thursday (5.29)

End-of-month institutional rebalancing window, increased trading activity, and market fluctuations may slightly enlarge again.

Friday (5.30)

Pre-weekend, profit-taking actions are common, with likely small pullbacks and a closing in a consolidation pattern.

9. Next Week’s Final Summary

1. Overall fluctuation range: 203 — 232
2. Highest probability trading range: 208 — 228
3. Core market outlook: Overall consolidation with slight weakness, short-term recovery lacking momentum, but downside is tightly constrained by fundamentals and buyback policies, making deep drops very unlikely
4. Expected closing center: 214 — 220, median around 216.91

10. Key Signals to Watch Next Week

1. Whether the 210 support can be effectively maintained, directly determining short-term consolidation or correction trend
2. Whether trading volume during adjustment remains shrinking, indicating exhausted selling pressure and potential stabilization
3. The trend of U.S. Treasury yields, a key external variable affecting high-tech stock valuations
4. The overall direction of the NASDAQ index, as NVIDIA’s high Beta attribute will follow the market’s movement