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Israel raises to highest alert status "to prevent escalation" due to being marginalized in US-Iran negotiations
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu once led Trump's strategy against Iran, but after the US-Iran negotiations began, Israel was clearly marginalized. The US reduced coordination with Jerusalem, causing it to be "pushed from the cockpit to the economy class," which could affect his re-election prospects.
(Background: Kalshi is recruiting Trump’s former staff to lobby! Casino operators fired the first shot, and Polymarket was targeted by Congress on the same day)
(Additional background: The US House of Representatives is investigating insider trading on prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi to prevent officials from profiting using "state secrets")
"Marginalized" may not fully describe Netanyahu’s current feelings. Once almost daily in contact with Trump and considered the most knowledgeable Israeli leader about the US president, he is now being marginalized in the US-Iran negotiations.
In the early stages of US-Iran conflict, Israel indeed played a central role in Washington’s Iran strategy.
According to The New York Times, Netanyahu led multiple high-level strategic meetings, pushing for joint action against Iran and promoting regime change in Tehran. At that time, Israel was not only a regional ally but also the engine of Trump’s Middle East policy.
US-Iran talks will push Israel out of the core
But once the pace of the war changed, the positions on the diplomatic chessboard were also rearranged.
After the US initiated ceasefire and diplomatic contacts with Iran, Washington’s stance clearly shifted. The US hopes to replace the "alliance framework" with "direct diplomacy," and this direct approach has precisely pushed Israel to the margins.
Senior Israeli officials have been almost excluded from US-Iran negotiations, relying only on regional diplomatic channels and their own intelligence networks for information. For a country that sees itself as "the most indispensable player in the Middle East," this is undoubtedly awkward.
Analysts point out that this not only weakens Israel’s control over Middle Eastern affairs but could also impact Netanyahu’s prospects for re-election in 2026. If voters feel that Israel’s "privileged seat" in Washington is shrinking, Netanyahu’s personal brand will face reassessment.
Israel’s response
Israel is not entirely passive. Reports indicate that Israel is actively using regional diplomatic channels (Arab League, Gulf countries) and its own intelligence networks to fill the information gap left by US-Iran negotiations.
This actually reflects a deeper trend in Israeli diplomacy: more and more Israeli decision-makers believe that over-reliance on Washington’s "privileges" could be dangerous. Currently, Israel has raised its military alert to the highest level to prepare for an escalation of the Iran situation.