Polymarket players are once again betting real money on geopolitical issues.

According to Arab television reports, Pakistan's Interior Minister is conducting a new round of talks in Tehran. The reports state that the United States continues to impose tough conditions on Iran's nuclear program and the security of the Strait of Hormuz, and is unwilling to make concessions on these two core issues, with limited room to relax sanctions. Iran does not buy the U.S. guarantee to avoid renewed conflict. Polymarket forecasts show that the probability of a permanent peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran is 11% before May 31 and 33% before June 30.