5🈷️23日 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis

News:
Macroeconomic environment pressure: U.S. macro data is weak (oil prices are high, inflation concerns, and weak retail data such as Walmart), which is pushing up expectations for interest rates and suppressing risk assets. Geopolitical factors (such as news related to the Middle East) also occasionally affect risk sentiment.

As the options expiry approaches (Deribit size around $6.25 billion on May 29), put open interest is concentrated near $75k, while call open interest is more abundant around $80k. The market is trading within a contested range. Overall, the news sentiment is neutral to bearish, with a lack of strong positive catalysts.

Funding:
ETF dynamics: There has been continued net outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs. On May 18, the outflow exceeded $648M in a single day, and in recent weeks the cumulative weekly outflows have exceeded $1B. This reflects some profit-taking and/or risk aversion by institutions and retail investors, and it is the main news factor weighing on prices in the short term.

Funding rate: Recently, the funding rate has shifted from the earlier negative period to neutral / slightly positive, indicating that selling pressure from leveraged shorts has eased, but there are no strong bullish squeeze signals. A neutral funding rate is conducive to market stability, but it does not show strong long-side enthusiasm.

On-chain data: Active addresses and trading volume have rebounded slightly, but growth in new addresses is limited. Holder behavior is more inclined to wait and watch (the proportion of active supply has declined). Indicators such as miner outflows do not show extreme sell pressure. Overall, funding conditions are cautious, and institutional fund inflows have slowed.

Technical:
⭐️ These past few days, I’ve been reminding everyone that the market hasn’t completely stopped falling yet. The overall move is still downward, and you should focus on the key risks at the daily timeframe.

At the current level on the daily timeframe, the MACD fast line has already gradually crossed below the zero axis. Next, we just need confirmation from the slow line. So the bigger trend still hasn’t fully put an end to the selloff. What you should watch next is the 4-hour timeframe: on the 4-hour chart, the momentum of the decline is gradually weakening. Therefore, watch to see whether a bearish divergence forms after the drop—this could help trigger a rebound. For how strong that rebound could be, pay attention to whether resistance around 76500 can be broken. If it cannot break through 76500, then the price at 76500 & 77600 will still move lower to adjust; the purpose of that adjustment is to repair the daily-timeframe order-book structure.

So, in summary: the bigger direction still hasn’t stabilized, but in the short term there may be an upward rebound. The rebound strength is unlikely to be very strong. Resistance to watch is 76500-77600, and support is 73800-70800.