I just realized something quite interesting about how retail investors are searching for signals to predict the market. Although we are living in the 21st century with advanced technology, there is a chart from over 150 years ago that is creating waves in the crypto and finance communities.

The Benner chart originates from a farmer named Samuel Benner, who suffered heavy losses during the 1873 depression. Instead of just stepping back, he decided to study economic patterns and published a famous book in 1875 called "Business Forecasts of Future Ups and Downs in Prices." What’s special is that Benner didn’t use complex mathematical models but relied solely on observations of agricultural commodity price cycles through his own experience.

But what makes the Benner chart so hot right now? According to investors, this tool has accurately predicted many major financial crises since the 1920s—from the Great Depression of 1929, World War II, to the Dot-Com bubble and the COVID-19 crash. The Benner chart divides the market into three phases: panic years (good to sell), boom years (best time to sell assets), and recession years (ideal for accumulation).

The interesting part is that Benner mapped out his predictions up to 2059, and according to this chart, 2023 is considered the best time to buy, with 2026 being the next market peak. That’s why retail investors in the crypto market keep sharing this tool, using it to support optimistic scenarios for 2025-2026. Some even predict that the hype around Crypto AI and emerging technologies could increase in 2024-2025 before declining.

However, recent realities are challenging this belief. In April 2025, serious market volatility occurred—some called it Black Monday. Crypto’s total market cap dropped from $2.64 trillion to $2.32 trillion. At the same time, JPMorgan increased the likelihood of a global recession to 60%, and Goldman Sachs raised their recession forecast to 45%. These figures clearly contradict the optimistic outlook of the Benner chart.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt criticized the Benner chart, saying he couldn’t trust this tool because it’s just a fantasy world—he can’t get in or out of this specific chart. However, despite these concerns, some investors still believe that history can repeat itself. They argue that markets are not just numbers but also involve human sentiment and motivation, and sometimes old, quirky charts like the Benner chart work because enough people believe they are effective.

Interestingly, according to Google Trends, interest in the Benner Cycle peaked last month, reflecting the growing demand among retail investors for optimistic stories amid increasing economic concerns. You can use Gate to monitor related assets if you want to verify this theory.