Ethereum (ETH)’s medium- to long-term outlook is one of the most certain and fundamentally strongest assets in the crypto market. It isn’t an “air coin”; it is core infrastructure for the entire Web3, comparable to “Nasdaq + the Federal Reserve” in the digital world.

I. Core fundamentals: an unbreakable moat

1. Ecosystem dominance: an irreplaceable “on-chain Wall Street”

- DeFi: Over 60% of the global TVL (Total Value Locked) is on Ethereum, with giants like Uniswap and Aave rooted here.

- Stablecoins: 80% of USDT and USDC issuance is on Ethereum, making it the world’s “money-printing machine” for digital dollars.

- Developers: Over 70% of blockchain developers worldwide build in the Ethereum ecosystem, creating an extremely high talent barrier.

2. Economic model: shifting from “inflation” to “deflation” (the strongest bullish signal)

- The Merge (PoS): Annual issuance drops from 4.3% → 0.5%, reducing new coins by 90%.

- EIP-1559 fee burning: 70%-90% of Gas fees are directly burned.

- In bull markets / when the network is busy: burn > issuance → ETH turns net deflationary.

- Staking lockups: About 36 million ETH (30%+) are staked, greatly reducing circulating supply.

II. Major technical upgrades in 2026-2028: a performance surge

1. Glamsterdam (mid-2026)

- ePBS: Block production is separated, resisting MEV monopolies and becoming more decentralized.

- Parallel execution: L1 shifts from “single-threaded” to “multi-threaded,” doubling TPS.

- Blob scaling: L2 (such as Arbitrum) fees drop another 50%-80%.

2. Hegota (end-2026)

- Verkle trees + stateless clients: Node data is reduced exponentially, so regular computers can run nodes.

- Post-quantum cryptography: Lay the groundwork early to ensure the long-term security of assets worth trillions.

3. Long-term (2027-2028)

- ZK-EVM: L1 verification efficiency improves 1000x, targeting 100,000+ TPS (comparable to Visa).

- Account abstraction (smart wallets): Say goodbye to seed phrases—experience it as simple as using Alipay.

III. Future narrative: from “public chains” to the operating system of the digital world

1. RWA (tokenizing real-world assets on-chain)

- Tokenization of stocks, bonds, gold, and real estate. Ethereum is the preferred underlying layer, opening up a multi-trillion-dollar market.

2. AI + blockchain (the biggest dark horse)

- The Ethereum Foundation is explicit: building the global settlement layer for the AI economy.

- Provide on-chain identity, trusted payments, and tamper-proof records for AI agents.

- The core track of the next decade—Ethereum moves to secure its position early.

IV. Risks (far smaller than those of small-cap coins)

1. Macroeconomic risk: Federal Reserve rate hikes, tightening global liquidity (the biggest short-term pressure).

2. Competitive risk: Solana and SUI divert users, but they are unlikely to shake the ecosystem’s fundamental base.

3. Regulatory risk: Considered as digital commodities / bulk commodities; the regulatory environment is far better than for “sh*tcoins.”

V. Outlook summary (one sentence)

ETH is the “ballast stone” of the crypto world—steady growth with an extremely high ceiling.

- Short term (1 year): An upward move with volatility, benefiting from the BTC bull market, ETF inflows, and upgrade rollouts.

- Medium to long term (2-3 years): The next bull market could break through $10,000, even higher.
$ETH ‌