May 22 Evening Analysis

Today, Kevin Wirth officially took office as Chair of the Federal Reserve. His core policy is a combination of rate cuts and aggressive balance sheet reduction: prioritizing the contraction of the Fed’s balance sheet, tightening liquidity discipline, rather than an all-out full-scale liquidity flood. Although he is relatively open toward crypto, balance sheet reduction is bearish for risk assets. Coupled with uncertainty about when the policy will be implemented, the desire to take precautionary action early and book profits at high levels is strong, and expectations for macro liquidity remain tilted bearish.

On the 1-hour timeframe, price is under pressure: the Bollinger upper band pulls back, and price is currently consolidating weakly below the Bollinger mid-band. The overhead resistance at 77,800 has been tested multiple times and failed. KDJ’s upward momentum has been dulled; rebound energy is exhausted. There is no reversal signal with increased volume—only a weak corrective repair.

For tonight, the recommendation remains mainly to go short from the upper range: 78,000–78,500 “箜”. Target: 76,000–76,500.$BTC $GT $ETH #TradFi交易分享挑战