Recently, some people have been using the curve of stablecoin supply to manipulate ETF inflows and outflows, to be honest, the correlation looks quite similar, but don’t rush to see it as causation. I also like to plot market trends as waveforms to find rhythm, but after backtesting long positions, I realize: the same shape can be driven by either off-chain inflows or just funds moving around on-chain/exchanges/market-making pools.

And recently, cross-chain bridges have had issues again, and oracles reported errors, causing everyone to collectively “wait for confirmation.” This kind of sentiment can directly disrupt the flow of funds: what should be entering doesn’t, what should be leaving doesn’t, and on-chain data instantly becomes “very signal-like.” I used to be obsessed with “only looking at on-chain data,” but now I can only say… on-chain data can also deceive, or be amplified by noise from events. Anyway, I’ll stick to small positions according to rules, so I don’t let the charts loosen my grip.