Polymarket Targets Japan Approval by 2030

Polymarket is preparing a long regulatory push into Japan as it seeks full government approval by 2030

ContentsJapan Push Begins Under Tight RulesRetail Trading Culture Makes Japan AttractiveRegulated Strategy Replaces Fast ExpansionThe company has appointed Mike Eidlin as its Japan representative, and Bloomberg reported he will lead the effort after serving as Head of Japan at crypto firm Jupiter. The plan shows Polymarket taking a formal route into a market where prediction contracts lack a clear legal category.

Japan Push Begins Under Tight Rules

Japanese users cannot currently access Polymarket under its regulatory requirements policy. That barrier reflects Japan’s strict approach to wagering and uncertain outcomes.

The main legal challenge comes from Article 185 of Japan’s Penal Code, which bans gambling outside approved areas such as horse racing and lotteries. Japan has no specific rulebook for event-based trading.

Polymarket’s 2030 target suggests a long review process. Approval by regulators would require them to decide whether event contracts count as gambling, financial instruments, or another permitted structure.

Retail Trading Culture Makes Japan Attractive

Japan offers a large potential audience for prediction markets. The country has about 124 million people, an active retail trading base, and around 12 million registered crypto accounts, based on Financial Services Agency figures.

Those conditions make Japan appealing for Polymarket, but the company faces tougher limits than in many other markets. Cash-based forecasting could trigger gambling concerns unless regulators create a formal exemption or financial market pathway.

The timing reflects Polymarket’s wider growth strategy. The platform was valued at $15 billion in April after Intercontinental Exchange completed its investment, and it is reportedly discussing another $400 million funding round.

Competition is rising as well. Kalshi has gained ground in the prediction market sector, with April volume reaching $14.8 billion, while Polymarket’s offshore exchange and US app volume fell 9% to $10.3 billion.

Regulated Strategy Replaces Fast Expansion

Japan’s approval timeline remains difficult because prediction markets are not yet part of the country’s active reform agenda. The Financial Services Agency is working on crypto asset changes, including a shift for some assets toward the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act, and plans for spot crypto ETFs by 2028.

Polymarket may need to fit into one of several legal paths. It could face gambling limits, become a regulated financial product, or operate through a point- based model that avoids direct cash betting.

Domestic projects are also forming. Gumi and GC Labs announced an AI and blockchain prediction market in October 2025, while POYP uses a points-only structure. These models show local firms are testing Japan-friendly formats.

Polymarket’s Japan plan signals patience. Its CFTC route, ICE partnership, Nasdaq Private Market data deal, and Japan campaign all point toward regulation as the company’s next major strategy.