"Intelligence and Information Warfare Tool": Bubblemaps' CEO on Prediction Markets - ForkLog: Cryptocurrencies, AI, Singularity, Future

# "Intelligence and Information Warfare Tool": Chapter Bubblemaps — About Prediction Markets

Bubblemaps discovered 80 bets on US military actions against Iran on Polymarket with such accuracy that "it's not explainable by luck alone." The CEO of the analytics platform, Nicolas Wyman, stated in an interview with CoinDesk: if outsiders see unusual transactions, they can track them and opponents of the US.

"To be frank — this can endanger many lives," he said.

According to him, bets on military operations this year exceeded $1 billion amid geopolitical tensions. This creates a new form of insider trading.

Large bets were placed days before the attacks on Iran on February 28, the elimination of the country's Supreme Leader, and the announcement of a ceasefire. Nine accounts on Polymarket earned over $2.4 million almost exclusively on bets about US military actions.

"They bet not only on strikes days before they occurred but also on later dates to maximize profit," Wyman noted.

To avoid attracting attention, these accounts also made small losing bets on February 20. The accuracy reached 98%. Wyman added that during the strikes on Iran, civilians checked Polymarket to decide whether to stay in bunkers.

In response to a direct question about insider links to the US government, Wyman replied:

"We have no evidence that these are military or even American. The data is suspicious and points to someone with an unfair informational advantage."

Congressman Mike Levin wrote on X that "the insider trading problem in prediction markets is bigger than anyone could have imagined." Together with Senator Adam Schiff, he introduced the DEATH BETS Act to ban contracts related to war.

The insider trading problem with prediction markets is bigger than any of us could have known.

The New York Times found 80+ Polymarket accounts showing signs of insider trading, many tied to U.S. military operations, including seven that collectively won $1.4 million on the…

— Rep. Mike Levin (@RepMikeLevin) May 15, 2026

Wyman also suggested that prediction markets could be used for manipulation:

"The government could intentionally place bets to create false signals and mislead opponents. Prediction markets are a tool of intelligence and information warfare."

He added that such platforms not only forecast the future but also change it. At the same time, he did not accuse the platform itself:

"I don’t want to criticize Polymarket. Anyone can use a cheap VPN or buy an account with completed KYC. This is a problem not just for Polymarket but for the entire internet."

400 Suspicious Transactions

Since the beginning of the year, Kalshi has reviewed and flagged over 400 suspicious transactions — twice as many as all of last year, Reuters reports, citing its sources. Some of them have been referred to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The volume of abnormal contracts on Polymarket has also noticeably increased.

"In the world of traditional insider trading, it’s usually easy to identify who has access to non-public information. On prediction markets, gathering such data is often impossible," noted Stanford Law School professor and former SEC commissioner Joseph Grundfest.

Trading volumes continue to grow: Kalshi’s trading volume over six months increased more than threefold to $178 billion. In April, the monthly turnover of offshore and US-based platforms on Polymarket was about $10.3 billion compared to $3.8 billion a year earlier.

Meanwhile, services are tightening rules. Recently, they banned federal employees from betting on political campaigns they participate in. Regulation of prediction markets has become a point of contention between the CFTC, which wants to regulate them as derivatives, and individual states.

Investors’ interest has increased in platform valuations: Kalshi closed a $1 billion funding round with a valuation of $22 billion. Polymarket is negotiating new funding at a valuation of $15 billion.

Earlier, CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that the regulator would pursue insider trading aggressively. In response, Kalshi and Polymarket updated their rules and explicitly banned bets based on confidential information and illegal tips. Polymarket also removed some contracts related to military topics.

"If someone has insider information, they are more likely to use it on a prediction market than on the stock market," said Charles Martino, a professor at the University of Toronto’s business school.

Investors increasingly consult prediction markets before making deals. Such platforms sometimes predict election outcomes and economic decisions more accurately than traditional polls.

Users buy and sell binary contracts "yes" or "no" on the outcome of various events — from economic policy to sports.

"These markets allow trading not on the reaction of the market to news but on the news itself. The risk is lower," explained Vincent Gregoire, a professor at HEC Montreal Business School.

Recall that in April, the US Department of Justice charged active-duty service member Gannon Ken Van Dijk, suspected of using secret information to place bets on Polymarket.