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#DailyPolymarketHotspot
Rather than strongly trending upward today, Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to consolidate within a narrow range of 76,000 to 78,500 and face a short-term pullback risk. Although the Iran-U.S. draft agreement mediated by Pakistan has provided a boost to the market by reducing macro-level geopolitical risks, it appears that positive momentum alone is struggling to initiate a new rally.
Persistent Spot ETF Outflows: Despite the optimism brought by the Iran news, data from Moneycontrol shows that institutional cash outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to suppress upward momentum.
Concerns over Interest Rates and Inflation: Rising oil prices and the upward trend in U.S. Treasury yields are limiting global risk appetite, making it difficult for Bitcoin to stay above $78,000.
Fear and Greed Index: The index is currently at 39 (Fear). This indicates that retail investors are hesitant to enter the market aggressively.
The positive news in the market has been partially priced in, and its impact is beginning to fade. As long as spot ETF outflows continue, Bitcoin's moves toward $78,000 today may remain as "short-term corrective rallies," and by the end of the day, it could fluctuate around $77,000 or experience a slight pullback.