Did the Iran-U.S. agreement save BTC? Don't worry, the real big boss hasn't appeared yet

Last night, news from the Middle East broke, and BTC instantly rebounded.
Many people were so excited they said:
"War is over, the bull market is back!"
But here’s the question:
The biggest boss for BTC right now isn't Iran.
It's—the Federal Reserve.
The easing of Middle East tensions can only repair short-term sentiment;
What truly determines BTC's height is still dollar liquidity.
Why?
Because BTC has now been fully institutionalized.
ETF funds, Wall Street capital, macro trading logic—all are starting to influence the price.
Simply put:
Now BTC is more like tech stocks.
When liquidity is loose, it soars;
When the dollar strengthens, it struggles.
So last night’s rebound, while good, is essentially more like:
A sentiment recovery.
Not a trend reversal.
My outlook on BTC today is cautiously optimistic.
In the short term, the decrease in Middle East risk and the reduced safe-haven demand are positive for BTC.
But the problem is:
The market has already priced in some expectations in advance.
So now it’s especially prone to:
"Good news gets realized, then a pullback."
Many retail investors can’t help but chase after the rise, but the main players love this moment.
Because once emotions overheat, it’s easy to harvest.
Another critical detail:
Although BTC has regained the $77k level, altcoins haven't fully exploded.
What does this indicate?
It shows that funds are still testing the waters.
The real bull market usually involves:
BTC rising;
ETH following;
Altcoins surging;
MEME coins taking off.
And right now, we’re still far from that stage.
In one sentence:
The market is restoring “confidence,”
not “madness.”
So today, what’s more likely to happen is:
High-level oscillation, repeated shakeouts, trapping both bulls and bears.
And the true big trend still depends on the Federal Reserve’s stance. #Polymarket每日热点