#Polymarket每日热点 Good news from the US and Iran suddenly hits the market—why does BTC rebound but keep “hesitating step by step”?

## 1. Market scan: stuck at the $78k threshold

On May 22, BTC traded between $77,300 and $78,200, in a narrow range of less than $1,500—a typical “stuck/boxed-in” market. It was down about 0.73% over the past 24 hours. Resistance above $78,000 is clear, while around $76,000 forms short-term support. The Fear & Greed Index fell to 28, approaching the edge of “Extreme Fear (≤25),” down 15 points over nearly a week.

## 2. The US-Iran agreement lands—up, but not surging

According to Arab satellite television, through Pakistan’s mediation, a draft US-Iran agreement has ultimately been reached. The draft covers a comprehensive ceasefire, protection of infrastructure, guaranteed freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and a step-by-step easing of sanctions on Iran. The news drove a sharp drop of more than 4% in global crude oil futures in the short term, but after BTC rebounded to $77,400, it quickly fell back into consolidation.

## 3. CPI runs hot + hawkish Fed minutes—double pressure

The reason BTC can’t “move up” is fundamentally that the macro backdrop has formed a major drag. April’s CPI rose 3.8% year over year, significantly exceeding expectations, with signs of inflation flaring up again. The April FOMC minutes released on the 21st had a hawkish tone—multiple officials believed the interest-rate freeze could be extended, and some even didn’t rule out restarting rate hikes. In addition, the policy direction under the newly appointed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh remains unclear, and that uncertainty further suppresses risk appetite.

## 4. Institutional funds exit; on-chain demand shrinks

In recent days, spot Bitcoin ETF flows have continued to bleed out. Coinbase’s premium index has remained persistently negative, suggesting US institutional funds have not truly returned. On-chain data shows overall Bitcoin demand has turned into net contraction, and 30-day ETF demand growth has fallen to the lowest level in nearly a month. Meanwhile, $7.81 billion has been identified as the “true market average price”—once it breaks, a large number of holders will flip from profit to loss, triggering further selling.

## 5. Two negative factors you can’t ignore

First, the agreement has not yet been officially confirmed. The draft news comes from the media rather than official channels. Neither the White House nor Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has issued an official statement, and the US side’s timetable for easing sanctions runs counter to Iran’s demands. A “reverse market” scenario—where negotiations break down—could happen at any time.

Second, Iran holds about $7.7 billion worth of crypto assets. If, after sanctions are lifted, some positions choose to be sold off, it will add additional supply pressure to the market.

## 6. Overall judgment

The US-Iran agreement has indeed improved the marginal tail risk for geopolitics, but for now the market’s focus remains on hawkish Fed policy and continued outflows of institutional funds. The signals between bulls and bears are badly imbalanced—23 bearish indicators versus 10 bullish indicators, with sentiment edging toward extreme fear. In the short term, the market is more likely to keep weakly ranging between $76,000 and $78,500. To break upward toward $80,000 requires a substantive macroeconomic reversal. To the downside, investors should closely watch the defense of the key support at $75,000. The risks of the agreement itself also cannot be overlooked: if no substantial progress materializes within seven days, the positive news could quickly transform into pressure for a new round of pullbacks.