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When ETF funds continuously withdraw, traders should not only look at a single daily K-line.
Yesterday, the net outflow of US Bitcoin spot ETFs was $100.9 million, and Ethereum ETFs saw a net outflow of $32.6 million.
This is not just daily volatility but a trend over multiple days.
Meanwhile, Nomura Securities officially abandoned expectations of interest rate cuts this year, expecting the Federal Reserve to hold steady throughout 2026.
Looking at these two events together: the net flow of crypto ETFs is shifting from "narrative-driven" to "macro-driven."
At the beginning of the year, the market bet on ETF inflows driven by rate cuts, but now they are reversed by sticky inflation and hawkish minutes.
ETF funds are the most sensitive marginal funds in the market, and their withdrawal indicates that the liquidity premium across the entire asset class is shrinking.
On a deeper level, the ETF structure amplifies the efficiency of macro signal transmission.
In the past, retail traders bought and sold on exchanges, with reactions lagging; now institutions move in and out through ETFs, and a single macro data point can trigger billions of dollars in one-way flows.
The daily trading volume of Bitcoin ETFs has approached that of some traditional commodity ETFs, and crypto assets are being incorporated into traditional macro pricing frameworks.
The risk is that if the expectation of rate cuts completely disappears, ETF net outflows could escalate from "profit-taking" to "position liquidation."
Currently, Bitcoin long positions remain high, and leverage has not been fully unwound.
If macro sentiment continues to worsen, the liquidity drain from ETFs will accelerate price discovery downward.
ETFs are the bridge for crypto markets to go mainstream, but both ends of the bridge are connected to the tides of macroeconomics.
$btc #eth #defi #etf #On-chain data