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Which BTCs Are Currently Exposed to Quantum Risks?
"Static quantum exposure" refers to the portion of circulating BTC whose public keys are already visible on the blockchain and could theoretically be reverse-engineered by a quantum computer using Shor's algorithm.
According to research, currently 6.04 million BTC are in a state of quantum exposure. We categorize this risk into two types:
1⃣ Structural exposure: 1.92 million;
Mainly originating from script designs like P2PK, bare multi-signature, Taproot, which reveal public keys. Among these, coins from the Satoshi era are the hardest to migrate.
2⃣ Operational exposure: 4.12 million;
Primarily caused by address reuse leading to early public key disclosure. This larger portion is easier to address and improve.
Among these, 1.66 million are related to exchanges. In marked balances, Coinbase has only 5% risk exposure, while other exchanges and known entities show relatively higher risk levels.
Of course, this is not to emphasize risk rankings or predict a quantum timeline, but to say that most exposures are management issues that can be significantly reduced by avoiding address reuse and other operational measures.
— Data above from Glassnode's research report —