Murphychen

It’s rare for an exchange to remember my birthday—I’m flattered!
I know, it’s the thought that counts. Thanks, @Gate_zh
Now I have a “cup” to smash, enough for two smashes 😂😂😂

Haha... some people think I’m being a “Monday-morning quarterback,” only now saying that major players were accumulating at $63K-$65K...... I f****** #￥%$#*
Did you seriously read my analysis?
Did you turn on the free little bell?
Did you subscribe to my channel?
(Just kidding 😀)
On August 8, 2026, exactly 10 days before the rally, I posted a reminder about the same thing, and it began with: Pay attention! Pay attention! Pay attention!
BTC was priced at $64,000 that day;
I explicitly emphasized in the post that red represented short-term liquidity concentration.
A sudden large volume of posit

Can we still buy BTC at $63K-$65K?
Before answering this question, I would first like to show everyone a piece of data, or rather, a particularly notable phenomenon:
As shown on the “cost distribution heatmap,” short-term holdings underwent intensive turnover from 8/4 to 8/18 (Figure 1, red area), with the price range around $63K-$65K.
From June to July, BTC stayed in the same range for a long time, but nothing similar occurred.
After this period of intensive turnover, the price suddenly surged sharply and rapidly, completely breaking from the norm, without pausing at all along the way.
Obviou

“Three lines converging” looks like it is about to fail......
At its core, “three lines converging” is about tracing the timeline of the traditional four-year bull-bear cycle. If its rhythm fails, it could mean that the “four-year cycle theory” may also be broken.
At present, we can see that the red line has begun showing a trend completely opposite to that of the blue and green lines.
The last time a similar situation occurred was in March-April 2025; at the time, Trump restarted the tariff war, causing risk assets, including U.S. stocks, to retreat sharply.
And this time, it is Trump again!

This is an article I published in the subscriber section on July 2 this year. Just 4 days earlier (June 28), a historically high-probability and rarely triggered signal indicating a major BTC cycle bottom had appeared.
After observing it for several days, I concluded that the signal was valid, so I reminded everyone to pay attention, as the probability of entering the bear-market bottom here was extremely high.
At the same time, I deliberately used an image of “smashing a cup as the signal” for the article’s cover.
This was an agreement I once made with everyone, and I hoped that those who had

This is what I posted in the subscription area yesterday.
Yesterday’s BTC high was only $400 away from my calculation.
Could this really become a short-term high? Time will tell.
But that’s not the main point I want to make.
Rather, I hope everyone understands that even if we know a pullback is coming, we should not think about shorting!
During the transition from the tail end of a bear market to the beginning of a bull market, prices tend to swing sharply.
For ordinary traders, it is difficult to grasp the rhythm of short-term shorting.
Long-term shorting offers extremely poor risk-reward and

The ETH data you asked for is here.....
It seems like it’s been a long time since I talked about ETH. This cycle, I only bought BTC and did not buy ETH, but that doesn’t mean I’m bearish on it. On the contrary, to this day, ETH remains the mainstream asset with the strongest consensus apart from BTC.
This isn’t something I’m saying; ETH investors have proven it through their actions.
ETH’s current price ($1,900) has retraced -60% from its peak, significantly less than the -80% decline in the previous cycle.
But the holdings of Conviction Buyers have already reached 31.42 million ETH, far excee

I know that many friends who study on-chain data are waiting for this signal — STH-RP < LTH-RP.
It means that whenever the short-term holders’ average cost (STH-RP) is lower than the long-term holders’ average cost (LTH-RP), it is the bottom of a bear market.
In the past 3 cycles, this signal has never been wrong. So many analysts take it as a core bottom feature.
Regarding this, I want to offer 2 suggestions:
1、If this cycle also shows STH-RP < LTH-RP, it is a signal that the bear market is bottoming — this is correct.
2、If someone says that because STH-RP < LTH-RP appeared at every

All the BTC I built up in batches have already broken even. Even the HYPE I DCA’d for 59 days is still in the red—what the hell… There’s no justice!
When it surged to 70+ over those days, I should’ve stopped the DCA—mistake, mistake! Luckily I still have a 20+ position as a base holding, so after converting, my average cost is below 40.
I hope the next bull run won’t let me down—at least I have to outperform BTC, right?

PSIP is affected by the chip attributes and structure across different cycles, including increasing accumulation and loss of low-priced chips, causing the lows to keep rising.
In this cycle, when BTC fell to $58,000, PSIP had already dropped to 46%. This figure is infinitely close to the lowest point of the previous cycle.
Based on the current structure, if BTC drops to 4w, PSIP would be 39%; if BTC drops to 3w, PSIP would be 36%. This would not only be far below the previous cycle, but even lower than in 2015.
I personally think this kind of possibility is very unlikely, very unlikely......