MLCCs are becoming a mainstream investment theme

The problem is that the main plays are already expensive:
- > Taiyo Yuden: 34x earnings
- > Murata: 42x earnings
The biggest opportunity is now in materials
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This is how the MLCC cycle will likely play out
➡️ MLCC makers, Murata, TDK, SEMCO, Yageo and Taiyo Yuden, raise prices for AI customers. These prices have already exploded.
➡️ 0 to 3 months: MLCC maker earnings benefit immediately from the price increase.
➡️ 6 to 12 months: MLCC makers renegotiate input costs with materials suppliers. These suppliers are still cheap.
➡️ 9 to 15 months: Materials suppliers’ earnings start reflecting the pass-through.
We are currently at month 0 to 3 for the April 2026 price hikes
Murata’s earnings already reflect Murata’s pricing power
NCI (4092.T) and Sakai (4078.T) have not yet reflected their portion of the pass-through, and both still trade at a forward P/E in the teens
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Materials suppliers historically capture 60% to 70% of MLCC ASP increases through supply contract renegotiations
The 15% to 35% Murata high-end MLCC price hike implies a 10% to 25% ASP uplift coming for NCI and Sakai’s high-end powders over the next 9 to 15 months
That is earnings growth that is essentially already in process, but the market has not priced it yet because materials suppliers report later in the cycle