Analysis: Rising inflation suppresses interest rate cut expectations, causing Bitcoin to face temporary pressure

robot
Abstract generation in progress
ME News Report, May 15th (UTC+8), according to BIT analysis, if Bitcoin can keep pace with the Nasdaq's rally, its current price should be close to $140k. Bitcoin's relative underperformance may be related to the resurgence of inflation since Q3 2025. Overall, Bitcoin has generally followed Nasdaq's fluctuations, but since October 2025, the divergence between the two has begun to widen significantly. At that time, the latest CPI reading had risen back to 3.0%, 100 basis points above the Federal Reserve's target, and the interest rate market also began to gradually withdraw some pricing for rate cuts in 2026. And this is precisely the source of Bitcoin's real pressure; Bitcoin's rally logic depends on the Fed's easing expectations. Once the market starts to pull back on rate cut pricing, Bitcoin's performance often comes under pressure. Since then, this logic has continued to influence Bitcoin's trend. Stocks, on the other hand, are quite different. As long as the market still views inflation as moderate and phased, the rise in inflation is actually beneficial for stocks: even if sales haven't increased significantly, it can boost nominal corporate income, reduce real debt burdens, and enhance stocks' appeal as a hedge against purchasing power. The latest US inflation data seems to have caught some market participants off guard, despite the fact that the institution's model had previously indicated that price pressures might rise again. The key question now is: will this round of inflation expectation re-pricing weaken Bitcoin's fundamentally positive outlook? And in this context, how should investors adjust their positions moving forward? (Source: PANews)
BTC-0.27%
NAS1000.42%
View Original
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
  • Reward
  • 2
  • 9
  • Share
Comment
Add a comment
Add a comment
ExitLiquidityPoet
· 4h ago
If this divergence continues, BTC's beta characteristic will be completely gone.
View OriginalReply0
OvernightPositionPhobia
· 4h ago
The theoretical price of 140k dollars looks like a joke; the market only recognizes the real interest rate.
View OriginalReply0
  • Pinned