I just reread the speech by analyst Raul Pal at Dubai Blockchain Week — and honestly, much of what he said flips the usual perception of the current cycle. Raul Pal, as always, goes against the consensus of crypto Twitter. Everyone is shouting about a bear market, but he insists: it’s just a correction within an ongoing bull cycle.

Pal’s main thesis is simple but powerful — liquidity explains about 90% of Bitcoin’s movements. Forget about four-year halving cycles; they are not a law of nature. Raul Pal points to specific factors that should create a liquidity explosion: fiscal stimulus from the administration, money issuance through regulatory mechanisms, changes in banking regulation (like SLR), and a weakening dollar in early 2026. The key point — all these policies will start taking effect as early as January-February. If Raul Pal is right, then January and February should be strong months; otherwise, his thesis falls apart.

What’s interesting — the market sentiment right now is extremely washed out, but this is more of a bullish signal than a bearish one. Bitcoin has hit new highs, and almost everything else is lagging. OGs have sold, ETF flows have temporarily dried up, panic in chats. But historically, such deep sentiment pullbacks within bull markets are normal — remember the 50% crash of Bitcoin in summer 2021 before new all-time highs?

For traders, it’s important to monitor specific macro indicators: M2 growth, dollar movement, Treasury and Fed decisions, changes in banking regulation. These seemingly boring regulatory shifts are actually huge catalysts. When banks are allowed to buy unlimited amounts of Treasury bonds, that’s liquidity creation. That’s fuel for the market.

Now about altcoins — everyone is asking, where’s the altseason? Raul Pal explains simply: altcoins move like small-cap stocks, following the business cycle, specifically according to the ISM index. When ISM crosses above 50, risk appetite will explode. Then Bitcoin dominance will fall, smart contract platforms will start to perform — that will be the beginning of altseason. Raul Pal doesn’t believe AI stocks will kill crypto. Retail investors always chase maximum growth potential — if Bitcoin can double, an altcoin can grow tenfold. Crypto remains underfunded compared to AI.

Regarding token dilution and unlocks — Raul Pal says it’s not a problem. The scale of capital entering crypto for the first time outweighs any unlocks. The real issue is choosing quality, not dilution.

Pal’s approach to selecting altcoins is strict and disciplined. He mainly focuses on large L1s — Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, plus a few new ones like Sui. The main thing is to track real network metrics: active users and transaction volume, not hype. His rule: if an altcoin doesn’t outperform Solana on fundamentals, you’re just burning capital. Raul Pal switched from Solana to Sui at the start of the cycle precisely because the data and chart aligned.

By 2026, Raul Pal sees several real narratives: AI plus crypto (the real version, not hype spikes), stablecoins and payment networks, high-throughput L1s, digital art and NFTs as contrarian bets.

In conclusion — a direct warning. Retail investors are losing money because they FOMO into rotations, trade excessively, chase yields, and use leverage. Raul Pal recommends simply holding BTC, ETH, SOL, or a basket of major L1s without leverage, limiting speculation to 5-10%. If people just held quality assets, they would outperform 99.9% of short-term traders. Pal’s final challenge: if his thesis is correct, 2026 could be one of the biggest liquidity cycles. Just don’t spoil it.