#TradFi交易分享挑战 US Dollar Index (USDX)

Recent Trends
On May 21, 2026, the US Dollar Index closed around 99.09, down approximately 0.24% intraday, marking the third consecutive trading day of decline; non-dollar currencies generally rebounded, with the euro rising to 1.1631, the British pound up to 1.3442, and the dollar falling back to 158.84 against the yen.
Core Drivers
The current dollar exhibits distinct features of "hawkish expectations underpinning, geopolitical easing pressure, and technical weakness":
📈 Support Factors: The Fed's hawkish stance provides a bottom support — The Federal Reserve's April monetary policy meeting minutes released strong hawkish signals, with most officials indicating that if inflation remains above 2%, further tightening may be necessary. Market pricing shows about a 70% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike by the end of the year.
📉 Suppression Factors: Rising expectations of US-Iran negotiations weaken safe-haven demand — Trump stated that US-Iran talks are in the "final stage," boosting market expectations of a deal, with war risk premiums beginning to fade, and funds flowing out of over-allocated dollar positions into risk assets and non-dollar currencies. The 10-year US Treasury yield also fell to around 4.55%, narrowing the yield spread advantage.
⚙ Technical Level: Weakening pattern established after breaking below the 99.00 key support — The dollar index has broken below the 10-day (98.68) and 20-day (98.47) moving averages, but the medium-term correction structure remains intact. Short-term support is seen in the 98.85~98.90 range, with resistance at 99.35~99.50. In the absence of new positive catalysts, the dollar index is likely to continue oscillating weakly within the 98.65~99.50 range.
Micron Technology: AI-driven HBM demand is strong, Micron is a key HBM supplier for Nvidia's AI processors. The memory industry faces a historic boom-bust cycle, with risks of oversupply and softening prices. $USIDX