Just noticed coffee prices made a solid bounce on Monday - arabica up 1.37% and robusta jumping 4.08% to a 2-week high. The move makes sense when you look at the supply picture. Iran situation has shipping costs spiking, which is pushing up insurance and fuel for importers. But here's the thing - Brazil just got some decent rain in their main growing region, which is actually limiting the arabica gains. The bigger story is how much coffee supply is expected to flood the market. Brazil's forecasting that 2026 production will jump 17.2% to a record 66.2 million bags, and Vietnam's exports are surging too. That's why prices sold off hard over the past few weeks before this bounce. Rabobank is calling for record global production hitting 180 million bags next season. Watching the inventory levels too - they've been recovering, which usually pressures prices. Interesting tension between supply concerns and the massive crop expectations coming.