Just announced U.S. initial jobless claims

**Latest:** 209,000 (209,000 people)
**Previous:** 212,000 (downward revised)
**Forecast:** 210,000
**Result:** Better than forecast by 10,000, while lower than the previous figure by 30,000

The lower the number → employment is more stable, and economic resilience is stronger
The higher the number → a wave of layoffs may occur, signaling economic slowdown

This time, 209,000 is at a relatively low level historically (the normal range after the pandemic is roughly between 180,000 and 250,000). Also, for several consecutive weeks it has remained around 210,000 with fluctuations, without any clear deterioration

The impact on risk markets is as follows:
**Positive for risk assets:** Better-than-expected employment data → slightly reduced pressure for the Fed to cut rates, but the economy is not collapsing → the probability of a soft landing increases → stock markets, Bitcoin, and other risk assets are typically supported

Today is Thursday. After the U.S. stock market opens tonight, it will most likely react positively first

For Fed policy: The current employment data is neither too hot nor too cold. It won’t change the market’s expectations for rate cuts in June–July, but it will make the market feel that “the economy can still hold up”
#Bitcoin