Analysis: BTC is unlikely to stabilize above $80k in the short term, with weak spot demand suppressing breakout expectations

Odaily Planet Daily News: On Thursday, Bitcoin fell below $78k, and market concerns about the momentum of a subsequent rebound continue to intensify. Data shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net capital outflows for four consecutive trading days, and the approximately $584 million long liquidation earlier this week has also continued to weigh on overall risk appetite. Analysts believe that before on-chain spot demand recovers, BTC will still be difficult to effectively hold above $80k in the short term.

The Ethereum market is under even more pressure. ETH spot ETF saw a net outflow of $28.1 million on the day and has now posted capital outflows for eight consecutive trading days. Since May 7, ETH ETFs have accumulated total outflows of about $504 million over nine trading days, marking the most severe round of sustained capital withdrawals since February this year.

In the derivatives market, the total crypto futures liquidation amount this Monday reached approximately $657 million, of which $584 million came from long liquidations— the largest single-day long liquidation event since early February. Current Bitcoin open interest is down about 14% from its May 6 peak, but the overall leverage structure has not yet been fully reset.

On-chain data is also bearish. Glassnode said that when Bitcoin rebounded to $82k, it briefly reclaimed the key level of $78.3k “true market mean,” but it has now fallen back below it. Historical cycles show that BTC typically needs to consolidate in this zone for several weeks to months before confirming a switch in the bull-bear structure.

In addition, Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin spot CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) has been negative for nine consecutive trading days, setting the longest net selling cycle in 2026. Meanwhile, BTC’s hourly spot trading volume is down about 40% compared with the same period in 2025. Analysts noted that since Q4 2025, U.S. investors have been continuously distributing positions, while funds in Asia have shifted to accumulation.

The options market is also sending cautious signals. The 25-delta skew of near-term BTC options has risen from 2.7% to 6.2%, indicating a clear increase in demand for downside protection. Roughly $2.5 billion in short gamma positions are concentrated at the $75k strike price; once BTC falls back to this area, market makers’ hedging behavior may further amplify volatility.

As for altcoins, the broader market still largely tracks BTC’s moves, with Bitcoin’s market share staying around 60%. However, Hyperliquid and Zcash have recorded double-digit gains against the trend, suggesting that some funds are rotating selectively. (The Block)