Glassnode's RHODL ratio rises to 4.5, the third highest in history, indicating that long-term holders are dominating the market. Over the past six months, BTC has fallen about 50%, with short-term speculation sharply decreasing, and the market is closer to a cycle bottom. Historically, the ratio was higher in May 2015 and July 2022, both associated with bottoms, but analysts say that further increases would require extremely shrinking short-term demand, and current rebound, negative perpetual funding rates, and new highs in the S&P 500 suggest that extreme market conditions are less likely (MLion).

MeNews

2026-05-21 09:06:48

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ME News Report, April 17 (UTC+8), the on-chain data platform Glassnode's RHODL ratio has now reached 4.5, the third-highest level in history. This indicator reflects market structure by comparing the wealth share of long-term holders (holding coins for 6 months to 3 years) with short-term holders (holding coins for 1 day to 3 months). Current data shows that, following approximately a 50% correction in Bitcoin's price over the past six months, short-term speculators have significantly decreased, and long-term holders are once again dominating the market, indicating a market condition closer to a cycle low rather than a peak. Historically, the two previous instances of higher RHODL ratios were in 2015 (ratio of 5) and 2022 (ratio of 7), both associated with cycle lows. However, analysts believe that although further increases in this ratio typically require extreme contraction of short-term demand, the market is less likely to be in an extreme state given that Bitcoin has rebounded about 25% from the February lows, perpetual contract funding rates are negative, and the S&P 500 has hit record highs. (Source: MLion)

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Half-SectionSucculent

· 5h ago

RHODL is pushing higher, liquidity is drying up; currently, the probability doesn't seem high.

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GateUser-c44b371b

· 5h ago

Keep going, anyway there's no other choice.

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MorningGoldAsWavesCrashAgainst

· 5h ago

S&P hits a new high, BTC gets hammered, this decoupling is a bit uncomfortable

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GovernanceMoodboard

· 5h ago

A rebound + negative funding rate indeed doesn't look like an extreme bottom.

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IdleFishDaoMember

· 5h ago

Both 2015 and 2022 correspond to the bottom; will this script be the same this time?

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FeeFiFoFum

· 5h ago

Long-term holders dominate = minimizing selling pressure, but who will drive the market up?

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GateUser-b4b056d3

· 5h ago

Short-term speculation has run out, leaving a bunch of diamond hands exchanging farewell.

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GateUser-173efae5

· 5h ago

RHODL 4.5 now, old hands really have patience

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Glassnode RHODL ratio rises to the third highest in history, on-chain data shows Bitcoin may have already bottomed out

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