After SpaceX took the lead by submitting its IPO application on May 20, the two giants in the AI sector, OpenAI and Anthropic, officially entered the race for going public. Based on all publicly available information, OpenAI is about a month ahead of Anthropic in the listing timeline, but the core focus of this race has shifted to a contest between the "financial engine" and the "restructuring engine."

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1. Timeline: Who can go public first?

Comparison Dimension OpenAI Anthropic
IPO Time Frame Earliest possible IPO completion by September 2026 Planning to list as early as October 2026
Secret Application Submission Date As early as May 22 (this Friday) Submitted IPO prospectus to the SEC Started IPO preparations in December 2025 with Wilson Sonsini law firm, but specific filing date not disclosed
Fundraising Scale At least $60 billion Expected to exceed $60 billion
Latest Valuation About $852 billion (after a record $122 billion financing at the end of March 2026) $900 billion (Series H $30 billion financing deal finalized, imminent closing)
IPO Target Valuation Over $1 trillion Not publicly disclosed, but post-Series H valuation has surpassed OpenAI, with expectations to reach the trillion-dollar club simultaneously
Listing Underwriters Working with Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, etc. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan Chase are expected to be key candidate underwriters

From this comparison, OpenAI has the early advantage in the application process, with its listing target window about a month earlier than Anthropic.

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2. The key variables deciding the outcome: OpenAI's "internal troubles" vs. Anthropic's "external challenges"

IPO is never just a race against time; both companies face unique challenges on their path to going public.

🔴 OpenAI: Won the lawsuit, but "internal troubles" far from resolved

Legal crisis has been resolved. On May 19, the court dismissed Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI for violating its "non-profit" original mission, removing a major legal obstacle to OpenAI’s listing.

But the real thorn is structural issues. Since its founding in 2015, OpenAI has operated as a non-profit research lab, and since 2025, it has been undergoing a restructuring into a Public Benefit Corporation, a process still ongoing. More critically, investigations led by the Republican Party are targeting Altman himself, with potential conflicts of interest that could complicate and delay SEC review.

Financially, the pressure is also intense. In 2025, OpenAI generated about $20 billion in revenue but had a net loss of approximately $8 billion. Analysts predict losses could rise to $14 billion in 2026. To stabilize morale before going public, the company plans to allocate up to $6 billion in stock options incentives in 2026—further increasing financial burdens.

🟢 Anthropic: Healthier finances but facing high "computing tax"

Anthropic’s financial situation is relatively stable. Recent disclosures show the company is approaching quarterly operational profitability—expected to achieve about $559 million in operating profit in Q2, with revenue potentially exceeding $10.9 billion. Even more notable, its annual recurring revenue has surged from about $9 billion at the end of 2025 to over $44 billion in May, nearly a fivefold increase in just a few months.

However, Anthropic also bears heavy expenses. The company has signed a massive compute agreement with SpaceX, paying $1.25 billion monthly, with the contract lasting until 2029. This "compute tax" casts a long shadow over profitability prospects.

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3. Market sentiment has reversed

The predictive market Kalshi’s data is quite instructive: before May 20, traders believed OpenAI had only a 31% chance of going public first, while Anthropic’s was as high as 69%. But within just one day, this ratio dramatically reversed—OpenAI’s probability soared to 83%, and Anthropic’s dropped to 20%. Dan Ives, head of global tech research at Wedbush Securities, also clearly stated: "Given the current AI arms race, being first to the public markets offers a decisive advantage."

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Conclusion: OpenAI is more likely to go first, but uncertainties remain

Based on current information, OpenAI’s lead in the timeline (targeting September vs. Anthropic’s October) and actual application progress suggest it is more likely to be the first to hit the capital markets. The current market prediction of an 83% probability also confirms this expectation.

However, both companies face challenges—OpenAI with restructuring uncertainties, and Anthropic with high compute costs. The final outcome will depend on SEC approval pace.

This is a contest of "engines" versus "engines": Can OpenAI, while maintaining its September window, successfully complete its structural reorganization and stabilize its growing losses? Can Anthropic, within a one-month window, pull off a comeback? The answers will gradually unfold in Fall 2026.

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💡 Related extension: SpaceX is scheduled to go public on Nasdaq on June 12, with an expected fundraising scale of up to $75 billion, and a valuation potentially hitting $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion. This triple IPO wave of over a trillion dollars is destined to be one of the most notable events in the global capital markets of 2026. #Polymarket每日热点