UBS research report states that if the Middle East conflict is diplomatically resolved, investors will refocus on economic and earnings fundamentals, and global and U.S. stocks remain attractive. U.S. Q1 earnings are optimistic, with EPS growth of about 17%, the fastest since Q4 2021. Long-term ceasefires remain difficult, and the energy market recovery will take time, so Brent crude oil price forecasts have been raised from $90 per barrel to $100 per barrel, and ratings for energy-sensitive markets like the Eurozone and India have been downgraded to neutral.

MeNews

2026-05-21 06:58:03

Abstract generation in progress

ME News Report, April 17 (UTC+8), UBS's research report on April 16 pointed out that based on the bank's baseline scenario, the final diplomatic solution to the Middle East conflict will enable investors to once again focus on healthy economic and earnings fundamentals. The bank stated that during the escalation of the Middle East crisis, it has consistently believed that global and U.S. stock markets remain attractive. The bank expects the first-quarter earnings season for U.S. stocks to perform strongly, highlighting an optimistic outlook for corporate profits, with earnings per share this quarter likely to grow by 17%, the fastest pace since Q4 2021. However, the bank also anticipates that the long-term ceasefire in the Middle East will be fraught with difficulties, and even if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes, it will take time for the global energy markets to return to normal. Therefore, we recently raised our Brent crude oil price forecast for the end of June from the previous $90 per barrel to $100 per barrel. Considering the outlook for the energy market, stocks most sensitive to high fuel costs—including the Eurozone and India—have become more cautious, and their ratings have been downgraded from "Attractive" to "Neutral." (Jin10) (Source: ODAILY)

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RollupStreetKid

· 9h ago

Raising from 90 to 100, this $10 premium isn't for oil, it's for anxiety tax.

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GateUser-cf218ace

· 9h ago

A 17% growth rate is the fastest since 2021, but everyone knows what happened afterward that year; history doesn't repeat simply, but it rhymes.

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GateUser-470bc925

· 10h ago

Brent's $100 prediction is a bit aggressive; the supply side isn't that tight right now.

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GateUser-76dcd439

· 10h ago

The energy-sensitive market has been downgraded to neutral, and Indian investors are about to start complaining again.

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ProofOfNap

· 10h ago

Research reports with this kind of tug-of-war writing style are probably trying to bet on both ends, so clients will believe whichever side they prefer.

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LiquidationLineInTheReflection

· 10h ago

The Eurozone has been hijacked by energy again; after so many years of calling for a green energy transition, at critical moments, it still depends on the oil and gas industry.

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SushiAndSlugs

· 10h ago

I agree that a long-term ceasefire is difficult; everyone has their own hidden motives at the negotiation table, and oil prices still need to be manipulated.

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GateUser-991fc58a

· 10h ago

U.S. stocks' Q1 data is indeed solid, but no one can predict the black swan of geopolitical risks, so it's better to run first.

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Salt-BakedBabyPotatoes

· 10h ago

EPS growth of 17% looks promising, but the Middle East powder keg hasn't been extinguished; the sustainability of this profit remains questionable.

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DaoSidekick

· 10h ago

UBS's report is quite contradictory. On one hand, it says diplomatic solutions are positive for the fundamentals, but on the other hand, it raises oil price forecasts. Are they optimistic or bearish?

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UBS: Investors will shift their focus from Middle East issues to economic and earnings fundamentals; U.S. stocks remain attractive

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