Take a look at the latest CoinGlass real-time data—ETH is currently $2,145.75, up 1.42% over the past 24 hours. It looks pretty celebratory.

But don’t you have a weird feeling?
Even though the price is rising, people holding coins in their hands don’t feel at all secure.

Let’s not just look at the candlesticks—we’re going to break it down today.

🩹 On the surface, it’s a rebound—yet in reality, it’s “holding on by a thread”

This move back above 2100 is mainly because—bears didn’t really press, rather than bulls being overwhelmingly strong.

· The trend is messy and uncertain: although it’s above 2140, the 2150 level is like a welded iron roof—after four attempts, it still couldn’t break through.
· Funding rate reveals the truth: the 8-hour funding rate is extremely low, at only 0.0038%.
· What does that mean? Retail traders simply don’t dare to chase longs.

In plain terms, this is a “passive rise” caused by short liquidations. Nobody wants to open a brand-new bet at this level—everyone is waiting for clearer signals.

📉 Surface rebound vs. the real direction of capital

The price is green, but the “insides” are actually bleeding. We can’t only watch the thief eat the meat—we also need to see the thief get punished.

1. On-chain data is flashing red lights

· Big players are running: from October last year to now, the number of ETH held by institutions has shrunk from 7 million to 5.5 million, down by nearly 1.5 million.
· “US capital” has disappeared: the Coinbase premium index—used to represent US big-money buying intent—has been negative throughout May.

2. Institutions are retreating

· ETF sees eight straight days of outflows: the Ethereum spot ETF has had net outflows for 8 consecutive days, and it left another $28.1 million yesterday.
· This is real sell pressure in black and white.

⚠️ The situation right now: both bulls and bears are waiting for the “starting gun”

The market today is especially interesting—neither side has made a move. Both bulls and bears are waiting for a signal.

Big macro developments tonight

· Nvidia is set to release earnings—tonight! It’s the AI leader. If the earnings miss expectations, US tech stocks could take a nosedive, and as part of the “global tech index,” ETH would be the first to be dragged down.

The split between bulls and bears

· Bulls think this is a “DCA zone”: analyst Van de Poppe says this is the time to buy in batches, with the reason being that the US regulatory policy (the “CLEAR Act”) may bring major positive news in June.
· Bears are watching $1,350: a CryptoQuant analyst warns that if the $2,100 bottom can’t hold, there’s huge downside room—possibly even reaching $1,350.

🎯 How to play it in practice? (Spot + Perps)

Since the ETF is still ongoing, let’s not be stubborn—respect the market’s choice.

First, the key floor

· $2,080 - $2,100: this range absolutely must not break down effectively. It’s the previous breakout-and-spark point and the psychological line—once it’s lost, clear out and watch from the sidelines.

Second, bull vs. bear strategies

· Long strategy (in line with the bigger trend):
· Entry: around $2,080 - $2,100—only prepare to “catch the needle.”
· Stop loss: daily close below $2,030.
· Position size: 2-3 tenths of your position. Don’t go all-in and bet the house.
· Short strategy (in line with the smaller trend):
· Entry: try around $2,150 - $2,180.
· Reason: since funding rates and the ETF have not turned favorable, as this rebound reaches that area, institutions may keep slamming sell orders.
· Stop loss: once price holds above $2,220, admit the mistake and exit.

💬 A few final thoughts

I know it’s tough for everyone right now.
If you hold spot, you’re watching profits give back; if you want to short, you’re afraid of being blown up by a surprise regulatory-policy hit.

My suggestion is: better to make less profit than to take a big loss.
Until the ETF recovers net inflows, treat all upside moves as rebounds.

Tonight’s Nvidia earnings are a big hurdle—do you think they’ll crash the market, or will they pull the situation back from the brink?

Write your thoughts in the comments: should this be a dip-buying moment, or is it time to run? 👇#TradFi交易分享挑战 $ETH

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