OpenAI to Leap Ahead of Anthropic in Capital Market Listing.

According to the latest updates as of May 21, 2026, the suspense surrounding this AI sector's "first stock" has become largely clear. Below is a comprehensive analysis centered on this conclusion:

1. Three-Party IPO Race Schedule

Currently, three tech giants are simultaneously rushing into the capital market, forming a rare "super IPO window":

· SpaceX: Has publicly filed S-1 documents with the SEC on May 20, planning to debut on Nasdaq under the ticker "SPCX" on June 12.
· OpenAI: According to multiple foreign media reports, it may secretly submit IPO documents as early as this week, aiming to complete the listing by September this year.
· Anthropic: Plans to go public in October this year, with an expected fundraising scale exceeding $60 billion.

2. Why Can OpenAI Break Through First?

① Core obstacles have been cleared in advance
OpenAI's biggest previous hurdle to going public was its complex "non-profit to for-profit" structure and related legal disputes. With recent lawsuits dismissed by the court, this major uncertainty affecting valuation has been removed, allowing its preparation pace to accelerate significantly. Additionally, OpenAI has hired Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as core underwriters, making the listing conditions essentially mature.

② Urgency to seize the "liquidity window"
This is the main driving force behind OpenAI's determination to race ahead. SpaceX plans to raise up to $75 billion, and its scale could easily trigger a capital siphoning effect, significantly tightening market liquidity. Against this backdrop, OpenAI must complete IPO pricing before the full impact of SpaceX's listing-induced capital squeeze unfolds, to avoid being passive in competing for investor funds.

3. Market Competition Accelerates IPO

Besides funding needs, fierce market competition is also a key factor pushing OpenAI to go public early:

· Enterprise client race: The AI index report released by fintech platform Ramp shows that in April this year, 34.4% of surveyed enterprise clients were paying for Anthropic's products, surpassing OpenAI (32.3%) for the first time.
· Changes in large model revenue rankings: According to Counterpoint Research, in Q1 2026, Anthropic accounted for 31.4% of global large model revenue, narrowly leading OpenAI's 29%.

4. Market Expectations Favor OpenAI

· On the prediction platform Kalshi, traders' probability of OpenAI listing before Anthropic has soared to 83%.
· On another popular prediction platform Polymarket, the probability of Anthropic listing first has plummeted from 69% to 20%.
· Wade Bush Securities' global tech research director Dan Ives also explicitly stated: "Given the current AI arms race, entering the public market first is very important."

Overall: SpaceX's massive IPO is about to absorb a large amount of capital, while OpenAI has recently cleared major legal obstacles on its IPO path. Its urgent listing schedule, combined with a nearly trillion-dollar valuation target, and Wall Street's strong confidence in market forecasts, make OpenAI—more eager, proactive, and with a clear path—undoubtedly poised to leap into the capital market first. #Polymarket每日热点