UBS research report states that if the Middle East conflict is diplomatically resolved, investors will refocus on economic and earnings fundamentals, and global and U.S. stocks remain attractive. U.S. stocks' Q1 earnings are optimistic, with EPS growth of about 17%, the fastest since Q4 2021. Long-term ceasefires remain difficult, and the energy market recovery will take time, so Brent crude oil price forecasts have been raised from $90 per barrel to $100 per barrel, and ratings for energy-sensitive markets like the Eurozone and India have been downgraded to neutral.

MeNews

2026-05-21 00:23:18

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ME News Report, April 17 (UTC+8), UBS's research report on April 16 pointed out that based on the bank's baseline scenario, the final diplomatic solution to the Middle East conflict will enable investors to once again focus on healthy economic and earnings fundamentals. The bank stated that during the escalation of the Middle East crisis, it has consistently believed that global and U.S. stock markets remain attractive. The bank expects the first quarter earnings season for U.S. stocks to perform strongly, highlighting an optimistic outlook for corporate profits, with earnings per share this quarter expected to grow by 17%, the fastest pace since Q4 2021. However, the bank also anticipates that the long-term ceasefire in the Middle East will be fraught with difficulties, and even if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes, it will take time for the global energy markets to return to normal. Therefore, we recently raised our Brent crude oil price forecast for the end of June from the previous $90 per barrel to $100 per barrel. Considering the outlook for the energy market, stocks most sensitive to high fuel costs—including the Eurozone and India—have become more cautious, and their ratings have been downgraded from "Attractive" to "Neutral." (Jin10) (Source: ODAILY)

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GateUser-e4351615

· 6h ago

EPS growth of 17% looks promising, but with the Middle East this powder keg ready to explode at any time, can the profit expectations stay stable?

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GateUser-dce566e8

· 6h ago

Q1 profit is in the past tense; Q2 guidance is the key. Is it too early to be optimistic now?

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SilverCubeInsomnia

· 6h ago

The phrase “it’s hard to sustain a long-term ceasefire” highlights the key point—oil prices are expected to remain range-bound and volatile at high levels for a while.

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PixelMetaverseRaccoon

· 6h ago

If diplomatic solutions really come to fruition, market risk appetite will return, and tech stocks should lead the rally again, right?

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TableNextToJupiter

· 6h ago

Brent $100? Energy stocks are about to take off again, but the Eurozone and India have been downgraded, so it's time to reassess the allocations.

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GateUser-8da82d63

· 6h ago

UBS's report is quite contradictory; on one hand, it says diplomatic solutions are positive for the fundamentals, but on the other hand, it raises oil price forecasts. Which side should we bet on?

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UBS: Investors will shift their focus from Middle East issues to economic and earnings fundamentals; U.S. stocks remain attractive

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