I recently reviewed my notes from early 2024, and I was surprised by how accurate some of the 2024 stock market forecasts we made at the time were. I remember analyzing in detail the stock markets of New York, Frankfurt, Shanghai, and Tokyo, expecting very different moves in each.

What’s interesting is that the Western markets did enter a correction as we had anticipated. The NYSE faced significant pressure during January and February, with that 17,000-point ceiling being a real obstacle. Frankfurt also had its moment of technical weakness, although the energy crisis that hit Europe in 2022 was already behind by then.

But what really caught my attention was Shanghai. That bullish moving-average crossover we saw at the end of December 2023 materialized into a fairly solid bullish momentum during the first months of the year. China’s economy showed signs of recovery that many doubted would happen.

Tokyo, on the other hand, was a disaster. That New Year’s earthquake, combined with Japan’s structural economic problems with debt exceeding 250% of GDP, was not a good combination. The Nikkei struggled to maintain its momentum.

What I learned from all of this is that technical analysis is still crucial for short-term investments. Long-term trends are more predictable if you understand the fundamentals, but in the short term you need to be reading those charts constantly. Moving-average crossovers, buy and sell volumes, resistance ceilings and floors—everything about it is still pure gold.

One thing I wouldn’t do now is rely too much on extreme leverage strategies to capture small moves. I’ve seen many people burn capital that way. Shorting has its place, but you have to know exactly what you’re doing.

If you don’t have time to study technical analysis in depth, ETFs are still your best option. Let the experts do the heavy lifting while you sleep soundly.

The 2024 stock market forecast we made was quite accurate overall, but as always, the markets surprise. Now in 2026, we’re seeing completely new dynamics. What matters is keeping that disciplined focus: analyze each stock market separately, understand what moves each sector, and don’t assume that what worked two years ago will work today.