#TradFi交易分享挑战 EURCNH (Euro to Offshore RMB) — Main monetary policy trend: clear bearish alignment

EURCNH is in a clear bearish trend. Market data shows the current real-time quote at approximately 7.9034, with the day’s open at 7.91, a high of 7.92, and a low of 7.90. Technically, the exchange rate has formed three consecutive daily declines, continuing to trade below the 5-day moving average of 7.9147 and the 30-day moving average of 7.9877, with a clearly bearish alignment; the MACD’s two lines form a dead cross below the zero axis and the green histogram momentum is gradually strengthening; the RSI falls to around 38, approaching the oversold zone but not yet showing a bottom divergence signal.
On the fundamentals side, the Eurozone faces downside pressure from expectations that the European Central Bank will cut rates in June (the market-implied probability of a rate cut is about 70%), alongside the reality that the European Union’s economic conditions are pressured by high energy costs and relatively weak trade conditions, leaving medium-term support relatively weak. On the offshore RMB side, it remains comparatively resilient: China’s April manufacturing PMI rebounded to 52.1, and the trade surplus expanded, providing a degree of baseline support to the RMB exchange rate. In the short term, 7.9000 is the key psychological support level. If this level is effectively broken, the next technical support is around 7.8800. Upward pressure is concentrated near 7.9437.
EURCNH bearish trend — ECB rate cut expectations + RMB resilience → Euro weakens; resistance at 7.9437, support at 7.9000
$EURCNH