#30年期美债收益率突破5% Is a financial crisis coming? Is the crypto market going to cool off?

In the past few days, it’s not just crypto, but all global financial markets are discussing the reasons for a “financial crisis,” which is due to U.S. Treasury yields reaching around 5.4%, hitting a new high since 2007. When U.S. Treasury yields hit historic highs in 2007, the 2008 financial crisis followed. A financial crisis will definitely come because the global economy also has bull and bear cycles; after a bull run, a bear market will follow, and a bear market is a financial crisis. However, it’s not now, but at some future point, and that timing needs to meet various conditions. If the high yields in 2007 triggered a financial crisis, then this time, high yields will also lead to a crisis—this view is overly simplistic, to be blunt, like “cutting a boat to seek a sword.” If anyone, even an amateur investor, can predict an imminent financial crisis this way, then what are economists for?

Many big players on Wall Street failed to predict the 2008 financial crisis in advance; they are much stronger than us. If we still don’t understand what U.S. Treasuries are and just feel that a crisis is coming, then we really need to reflect. Don’t just listen to the wind and follow the crowd; that will lead to gains and losses, and you won’t be able to do well in investing. Every day, you’ll be worried about whether prices will go up or down, whether to buy or sell. This is similar to the previous crypto bull and bear markets: just because the market peaked at the end of 2017 and again at the end of 2021, doesn’t mean it will peak in 2025 or that a bear market will start in 2026.
Time can be a reference, but not the only factor. It’s just that the timing coincidentally meets all the conditions for a bull market ending, but time itself isn’t the only requirement for a market to turn from bull to bear. Everyone who wants to survive long-term and steadily in this market, and to do better and better, must have their own trading system and methods for judging bull and bear markets, with fixed strategies for short-term, medium-term, and long-term trading. If these methods and strategies haven’t been tested over time, and instead change with market conditions, you’ll always be led by the market. Greed and fear, without stable methods, will cause you to “follow the wind and change with the tide,” leading to torment and wrong decisions—one mistake leads to more mistakes.
A simple example: you buy an asset, initially planning to sell at 10, but because the market is doing well, you become greedy and want to hold a few more days. Suddenly, the market drops below 10, and you start to fear, imagining all kinds of scenarios—what if it drops further? What if you sell and it rises again? These mental torments are caused by listening to news and relying on feelings. Without real, effective trading methods, you will inevitably be influenced by news and market fluctuations, triggering greed and fear—this is unavoidable.
Just like now, there’s talk that if you bought Nvidia at 10,000 in early 2000, you now have seven small targets. But after more than twenty years, without enough understanding, can you hold on? Just as in this industry’s oscillations, some say long-term holding yields no results, some say swing trading offers higher efficiency, and others say the bull market has ended. These kinds of opinions appeared in Nvidia’s early days too, and most people hold such views. The small minority who mock these opinions eventually become the envy of others. So, if you always get influenced by what others say and start worrying, fearing, or becoming excited and greedy, you need to be cautious. It’s because of a lack of true discernment and proper analysis methods. Without enough judgment and correct understanding, you can’t see or grasp the future.
This bull market has already shaken out most retail investors. I believe the market will reward those who keep working hard, learning, and growing.