A few months ago, I talked with my Polish neighbor about the euro-zloty exchange rate today, and he warned me to be pessimistic about the zloty. His reasons were the government and the fear of an escalation of the Ukraine war. At that time, I didn't take it too seriously, but now, after a detailed analysis, I have to say: The situation is more complex than I thought.

What’s interesting is that the euro-zloty rate today looks completely different than it did a year ago. While the euro rose significantly after the start of the war, it then fell over three years. That was surprising. In early 2025, the rate was around 4.27 PLN per euro, and since then, there have been several strong fluctuations. The question is: What has really changed?

When looking at the fundamentals, it becomes interesting. Poland has an unemployment rate of 3.1%, one of the lowest in Europe – by comparison: the eurozone is at 6.2%. Poland’s GDP growth is estimated at 3.5% for 2025 and 2026, while the eurozone expects only 1.2% and 1%. These are massive differences. Additionally, Poland’s key interest rate is at 4.75%, while the ECB’s is only 2.0%. Higher interest rates usually attract investments and support the currency.

But there are also counterarguments. Inflation in Poland was 3.7% in 2024, while in the eurozone it was only 2.4%. For 2025, Poland is expected to have 3.6%, but the eurozone only 2.1%. This could put pressure on the zloty. Also, public debt has increased – by mid-2025, over 416 billion euros, with a clear upward trend.

Technically, it looks like a sideways movement. The euro-zloty rate today shows that it repeatedly bounced off significant lows; since March 2025, there has been a slight euro appreciation. This could be a trend reversal or just a consolidation. Analysts are divided – some expect movements up to 4.20, others up to 4.44 EUR/PLN by the end of 2026. Erste Group predicts around 4.30.

Regarding the political situation: The new government under Donald Tusk has strong support among the population. That’s a stabilizing factor. At the same time, both countries are under pressure from geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties following Trump’s tariffs.

My conclusion after months of observation: The euro-zloty rate today is not easy to predict. There are good arguments for an appreciation of the zloty (higher interest rates, stronger growth, lower unemployment) and equally good for a depreciation (higher inflation, rising debt). Most likely, the pair will stay within a range with increased volatility. Interesting for active traders, but not straightforward. My Polish neighbor was partly right with his skepticism, but I wouldn’t be that pessimistic. The zloty has held up better than expected.