The 2018 record has been broken.

The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield is approaching 5.20%.
The last time I saw this number was in 2007—
that year, the iPhone had just been released, and the Bitcoin white paper was still a year away.
And this time, it's even more intense than 2007.
You think it's over?
The situation in Iran remains unresolved,
tankers in the Strait of Hormuz are moving cautiously,
oil prices are rising with inflation expectations.
Then on the Fed's side—
the probability of a rate hike in December has now soared above 80%.
The market is no longer discussing when to cut rates.
The current question is:
Should they raise again?
Gold has fallen.
Bitcoin has also fallen.
That so-called digital gold,
which claims to be the preferred safe haven,
is dropping alongside gold under real macro pressure.
Where is the safe haven?
You tell me Bitcoin is gold?
The market tells you:
You are even worse than gold—
at least gold has thousands of years of consensus and central bank support,
your Bitcoin consensus is just an emotional indicator in the face of interest rates.
The narrative that BTC is digital gold has never been an absolute truth;
it only holds under specific macro conditions.
When the Fed is flooding the market,
real interest rates are negative,
the dollar's credit is questioned,
and inflation expectations are out of control—
in these scenarios, Bitcoin does resemble gold—
because everyone is looking for an exit outside fiat currency.
But now?
Real interest rates are positive,
the dollar is strengthening,
U.S. Treasury yields hit a 19-year high.
At this point, capital choices are very simple:
I can sit back and earn 5% risk-free,
why would I take any risk to buy your assets?
In this situation, Bitcoin is not gold;
it’s a high-volatility tech stock—
even more fragile than tech stocks.
Many people tout the slogan of digital gold,
thinking that buying Bitcoin hedges the end of the world.
But they forget one thing:
The meaning of "safe haven" varies greatly among people.
Retail investors see safe haven as:
Fiat will collapse, BTC will reach 1 million.
Institutions see safe haven as:
I have nowhere to put my funds,
U.S. bonds give 5%,
why should I buy anything else?
When risk-free rates are high enough,
all risk assets—
whether stocks, gold, or Bitcoin—
will be under pressure.
It’s not that Bitcoin is bad.
It’s that macro policy is teaching everyone how to behave again.