Recently, Federal Reserve official Powell stated:

“If economic growth exceeds potential levels or new inflation risks emerge, the Fed may consider a moderate rate hike.”

As soon as this statement came out, the market instantly became tense.

Many people thought:
“Isn’t it said that rate cuts are coming this year? Why suddenly talk about rate hikes again?”

Actually, this is the most sensitive point in the global market right now—
The Federal Reserve is regaining control of market expectations.

Why can one sentence cause a plunge in the crypto space

Because the current crypto market is essentially a “liquidity market.”

Simply put:

* Fed cuts rates
= More money in the market
= Risk assets rise
= BTC, ETH take off

And:

* Fed raises rates
= Money in the market becomes more expensive
= Risk assets come under pressure
= Crypto market pulls back

So even just the phrase “possible rate hike,” the market reacts in advance.

Recently, many altcoins suddenly plummeted, and the logic behind it is very simple:

It’s not that the projects have become worse,
But that the market is starting to worry:

“What if the Fed stops cutting rates?”

Now, the US economy is stronger than many imagine

Why does the Fed dare to say such things?

Because currently, several key US data points are still solid:

* Employment remains strong
* Consumption shows no obvious recession
* GDP growth exceeds expectations
* Core inflation slowdown has begun to ease

In other words:

The US economy is not as “in need of rescue” as imagined.

And once the economy is too strong,
Inflation tends to come back.

This is what the Fed fears most.

Because the high inflation of 2022
has already cost them once.

So now, they prefer to “talk tough,”
rather than let the market enter a crazy bull run prematurely.

The biggest factor affecting the crypto space—expectations!

Many people now have a misconception:

Think that as long as there’s no actual rate hike,
the market won’t fall.

In reality,
Financial markets have always been driven by “expectations.”

If the market originally believed:

* Four rate cuts this year

And now suddenly it turns into:

* Possibly only one cut
* Or no cut at all

Risk assets will be re-priced.

That’s also why:
Although BTC hasn’t crashed recently,
its upward momentum has noticeably slowed.

And altcoins are even worse:

* AI sector pulls back
* Meme coins plunge
* Platform tokens weaken collectively
* High leverage longs frequently liquidated

Basically, it’s all about changes in liquidity expectations.

$BTC Why can it still hold up?

Because Bitcoin now
is different from before.

In the past, BTC was more like “high-risk speculative asset.”

But now:

* ETF funds keep flowing in
* Wall Street is starting to allocate to BTC
* US institutional long-term holdings are increasing
* Global safe-haven demand is rising

This makes BTC increasingly resemble:
“Digital gold.”

So now, it’s common to see:

* Altcoins crash
* But BTC remains steady

Market funds are clearly shifting toward core assets.

Next, the market will focus on:

CPI (US inflation data)

If inflation rises again,
the market will worry about rate hikes once more.

Non-farm payrolls

Strong employment means
the economy is still overheating.

US Treasury yields

This is the core anchor for global risk assets.

Higher yields,
more pressure on the crypto space.

FOMC minutes

The key isn’t “whether there’s a rate hike,”
but:

“Has the attitude shifted hawkish?”

What’s next for the crypto market?

The current market is very similar to:

The long-term bull market isn’t over yet

Short-term volatility

The reason is simple:

* ETF long-term funds are still in play
* The global monetary easing trend hasn’t fully ended
* The halving cycle logic for BTC still applies

But on the other hand:

* The Fed doesn’t want the market to rise too fast
* Macro news impacts are growing
* Leverage is too high

So, in the coming period,
The crypto market is likely to enter:

> “News-driven trading”

Where a single statement can cause rapid rises or falls.

Finally, in summary:

The Fed’s core goal right now is only one:

> Prevent inflation from spiraling out of control again.

And what the market fears most,
is:

> The failure of rate cut expectations.

So in the next few months,
The real main theme in crypto
will no longer be just “project narratives.”

But instead:

* The Fed
* US Treasury yields
* US economic data
* Global liquidity

Whoever can understand macroeconomics,
will truly understand the next round of market trends.

#特朗普推迟打击伊朗