#SpaceX估值或达2万亿美元 The Biggest IPO Countdown in History: SpaceX May Land on NASDAQ on June 12, Behind a $1.75 Trillion Valuation—Is It a Starry Sea or a Capital Bubble?

#SpaceX估值或达2万亿美元 The Biggest IPO Countdown in History: SpaceX May Land on NASDAQ on June 12, Behind a $1.75 Trillion Valuation—Is It a Starry Sea or a Capital Bubble?

According to multiple authoritative media reports, Elon Musk’s space exploration technology company (SpaceX) has significantly accelerated its IPO process, planning to go public on NASDAQ as early as June 12, 2026, with the stock ticker "SPCX." The IPO is expected to raise $70 billion to $80 billion, with the company's valuation potentially reaching $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion. Once successful, it will surpass Saudi Aramco (which raised about $29.4 billion in 2019), becoming the largest IPO in human history.

1. Why the sudden acceleration? SEC approval and the “One Split into Five” stock split paving the way
The original plan was to list in late June (around Musk’s birthday), so why was it moved up to mid-June? Insiders revealed that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) reviewed the company’s IPO documents faster than expected, which was the main reason for the schedule being moved forward. On the eve of the IPO, SpaceX completed a key move: a “one-for-five” stock split. All Class C common shares will be converted simultaneously into Class A common shares, with the fair market value per share adjusted from approximately $526.59 to $105.32. This move was interpreted by the market as a way to lower the share price and open the door for retail investors worldwide to participate in this epic IPO. The company plans to sell shares to retail investors in multiple markets including the UK, EU, Australia, Canada, Japan, and South Korea, and may allocate up to 30% of the IPO shares to retail investors, making it one of the most heavily retail-participated IPOs in history.

2. Where does the $1.75 trillion valuation come from?
Three major narratives support this “sky-high” valuation
A company that still lost $4.9 billion last year—what justifies a nearly $2 trillion valuation? The answer lies in its constructed “hardware + services + data” three-dimensional monopoly barrier, along with three layered, grand narratives:
1. Cash Cow: Starlink has built an insurmountable moat. Starlink is currently SpaceX’s most solid revenue foundation. By May 2026, it has deployed over 9,500 low-earth orbit satellites, covering 99% of the global population, with over 10 million users. In 2025, revenue is estimated at about $12.3 billion, accounting for 70%-80% of total company revenue, with an “end-user subscription + enterprise services + government defense orders” golden mix. Analysts predict that in 2026, Starlink revenue will reach $20 billion, with an EBITDA of about $14 billion, and positive cash flow will continue.
2. Growth Engine: Starship and Next-Generation Space Infrastructure. SpaceX disclosed in its IPO registration documents that it has invested over $17.5k in developing its next-generation Starship rocket, far exceeding the cost of its main Falcon rockets. The success or failure of Starship directly affects SpaceX’s long-term vision and economics. The company plans to start launching its latest Starlink satellites (V3 type) in the second half of 2026, likely using Starship, with each flight capable of carrying up to 60 satellites—nearly three times the capacity of Falcon rockets. This will significantly reduce launch costs per satellite and is key to realizing the Mars colonization dream.
3. Ultimate Dream: Mars Colonization and AI Data Center Space Alternatives. The most radical narrative is embedded in the compensation plan. Reports indicate that SpaceX’s board approved a super-compensation scheme worth up to trillions of dollars, with performance metrics directly tied to “building a million-person colony on Mars.” Musk responded that he needs to ensure the company remains focused on the vision of “making life multi-planetary,” rather than just quarterly earnings. Additionally, Starship is expected to deploy thousands of AI computing satellites in the future, serving as a space-based alternative to energy-intensive data centers on Earth.

3. Shockwave: How it will reshape capital markets and the tech industry
SpaceX’s IPO is more than just a company listing. It’s like a boulder thrown into a pond, with ripples spreading across the entire ecosystem.
To capital markets: An unprecedented liquidity rebalancing test. The $75 billion fundraising is equivalent to the total IPO financing in the U.S. in 2025. Goldman Sachs’ trading division believes that although there are concerns that a large IPO wave might impact U.S. stock liquidity, the current total market cap of U.S. stocks is $77 trillion, and the market can fully absorb it. However, the real challenge lies in liquidity redistribution. Large long-term funds will need to reposition to give SpaceX enough weight; thematic funds might reduce holdings in some tech stocks; passive index funds (like those tracking the Nasdaq 100) that include SpaceX could trigger passive selling pressure on existing giants like Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia. This isn’t “drying up” the U.S. stock market but “diverting the water flow.”
To the tech industry: Establishing a new valuation anchor for “super narrative assets.” If SpaceX successfully goes public with a valuation multiple exceeding 100 times sales, it will set a new valuation ceiling for all companies with “hard tech + long-term narratives” (such as OpenAI, Anthropic), becoming a new reference point. At the same time, it will ignite the global commercial space race, providing clear pricing benchmarks for industry chain companies and pushing policies and capital further into this field.
To ordinary investors: An unprecedented high-risk “future tech gamble” with high retail participation. More individual investors will be directly exposed to high-risk, volatile tech stocks. University of Florida scholar and “IPO expert” Jay Ritter has issued a warning: he is concerned about SpaceX’s potential $2 trillion valuation, emphasizing that the company’s operations and profit growth must match this valuation. “Everything in the future must go smoothly, with no mistakes,” he said. He even stated that if the valuation reaches $2 trillion, he would consider shorting the stock once it’s listed.

4. Reflection: The starting point of starry seas or the peak of a capital bubble?
SpaceX’s IPO, at its core, is selling a dream of AI, Mars, and humanity’s multi-planet future—using the money earned from Starlink today to sell to investors worldwide. Its successful listing will mark an unprecedented bet by capital on extreme long-termism and technological optimism. However, beneath the dazzling halo, risks are equally prominent: over $150 billion invested in Starship remains in test flight; Mars colonization goals are more like faith than an executable business plan in the foreseeable future; the $1 trillion+ compensation scheme deeply ties the company’s fate to a near-scifi goal; and the $2 trillion valuation discounts decades of perfect growth expectations all at once. On June 12, when the “SPCX” code first appears on NASDAQ’s trading screens, we will witness not just a company’s IPO but a question for an era: what kind of future are we truly willing to pay for?