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Suddenly noticing that today is the 519 Fifth Anniversary, time flies so fast. At that time, dual-currency wealth management was booming, with institutional sellers entering the market one after another like crossing a river full of crocodiles. Implied volatility dropped from 90% in 2019 to 65% in early 2021, and the downward trend was very obvious, almost without rebound. The market has been saying that institutions have already collapsed the market, and volatility will only get smaller and smaller.
However, 519 arrived quietly, followed by a series of institutional collapses such as Three Arrows/FTX, causing sellers who underestimated options IV to withdraw in disgrace.
Now, as institutionalization and U.S. stock market-like features of Bitcoin become stronger, many investors also believe that the era of large Bitcoin fluctuations has passed. But in my opinion, even the most long-standing asset like gold still has volatility potential today. I believe that the future volatility of the Bitcoin market will not weaken just like that. As the newest major asset class in the world, crypto still has a lot of gold mines to dig.