I'm watching gold make a recovery today after falling quite a bit. It moved away from a monthly low near $4,500 and is now trading around $4,580, up 0.75%. But the macroeconomic context is really complicated. Yesterday's Fed meeting was quite hawkish — they kept the rate at 3.50%-3.75% and even had dissent from three members, something I haven't seen since '92. As a result, the dollar became quite strong, reaching a two-and-a-half-week high. And you know, when the dollar rises like this, gold suffers because it becomes more expensive for those buying in other currencies.

What’s also weighing on it is the ongoing tension between the US and Iran that isn’t getting resolved. With the conflict in the Middle East, energy prices have skyrocketed, fueling fears of inflation. Trump has already rejected Iran’s proposal and maintains the naval blockade of Iranian ports, which intensifies disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. This favors those betting on the strength of the dollar as a reserve currency, keeping pressure on gold.

Technically, the outlook is more bearish. Gold isn’t able to stay above the 200-period moving average, and the RSI is weak at around 38. If it drops below 4,494, it could fall to 4,400 and then 4,268. As long as the dollar remains strong and geopolitical tensions persist, it’s hard for gold to gain real momentum.