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mkt thoughts 19 May 2026
Yields at their highs, 30Y at 5.18 and 10Y at 4.65. SPX, XAU and $BTC are all trading softer.
Into the open we have a strong reaction by the semi complex with $MU $SNDK and the even photonic names $LITE rebounding 3% in a single candle into the open.
The narrative of chinese suppliers entering the market in 2027 is also getting wider attention, likewise with Samsung and SK Hynix both accelerating the build out of their fabs. Fundamentally, the question of whether memory remains cyclical or escapes from that really depends on the tension between supply and demand. History would say no.
Good luck!