Recently, I was reviewing the 2023 numbers, and it's quite clear why the crypto market had such a strong rally. If you understand what moved prices last year, you have clues about what to expect now.

First, Bitcoin halving. Every 4 years, miners' rewards are cut in half, making the supply of new tokens scarcer. Historically, this has preceded significant bullish moves. The 2024 halving was a key factor that many anticipated already in 2023, and buyers were positioning themselves early.

Then there's the issue of ETFs. During 2023, there was a lot of expectation around the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States. The difference between a futures ETF and a spot ETF is crucial: with the latter, large fund managers would have to buy real Bitcoin. That means serious institutional demand. BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, was one of those applying for approval. If approved, it would be a huge bullish signal.

We can't ignore the AI boom. ChatGPT and everything that followed generated massive interest in technology. AI-linked cryptocurrencies benefited from that enthusiasm, as did the entire tech sector. The market was in a mode of seeking exposure to anything related to artificial intelligence.

But the most important factor was market psychology. The total crypto market cap grew almost 100% in 2023, meaning nearly $750 billion in new value entered. Trading volume far exceeded its historical averages. This doesn't happen without buyer conviction.

Another interesting indicator was open interest in futures. Bitcoin and Ethereum saw notable increases since August 2023, with new participants entering or existing positions expanding. When you see that combined with rising prices, it's a sign of fresh money entering the market.

Now, what about the future of cryptocurrencies since then? It depends heavily on the macroeconomic scenario. If inflation remains controlled and central banks cut rates, it could favor risk assets. If inflation rebounds, Bitcoin could look attractive as a hedge. And if we enter stagflation, well, everything gets complicated.

What’s clear is that Bitcoin and Ethereum in 2023 significantly outperformed the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. Bitcoin returned nearly 80%, Ethereum 40%. That’s hard to ignore. Of course, this doesn’t guarantee future results, but the strategy that works is diversifying between large-cap projects and others with higher potential, always with a clear methodology.

For those wanting to participate in this market, the ideal is to have part of the capital in long-term holdings and another for more active trading, depending on your risk tolerance. On platforms like Gate, you can access most of these assets and follow the crypto market evolution with real-time data.