On May 18, CNBC reported that multiple institutions are warning that global crude oil inventories are rapidly declining. Europe could even face actual oil shortages before the end of this month, and inventory replenishment may not be back until December 2027.

Jeff Currie, Executive Co-Chairman of Abaxx Commodity Exchange, said that the oil market currently appears stable on the surface, but the supply system is already under extreme strain. He warned that physical shortages could occur in Europe “at any time.” He added that once inventories are depleted, oil prices could see “non-linear” spikes.

Currie noted that the current crude oil market is in a transition period between the traditional low and high demand seasons. However, as the U.S. Memorial Day and the UK spring bank holiday approach, demand for diesel, gasoline, and aviation fuel will rise rapidly, at which point supply pressure could intensify significantly.

Analysts at Société Générale (SocGen) said that the oil market is only maintaining a “veneer of stability,” while underlying inventories and the logistics system are actually “extremely fragile.”

The report stated that since the escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict on February 28, the flow through the Strait of Hormuz—which accounts for about one-fifth of global oil and natural gas transportation—has continued to be restricted. Even if the strait resumes navigation in early June, considering tanker transportation, unloading, refining, and distribution processes, global supply chain recovery would still take at least 52 days.

SocGen warned that if the resumption of flow through the Strait of Hormuz is further delayed to the end of June, the market will face deeper and longer-lasting supply pressures. Global inventories could deteriorate further, and oil prices may even rise to 150 USD per barrel, staying high throughout the year.#TradFi交易分享挑战