QCP: IBIT options exceeding $4 billion expire, BTC falls below $80k support

ME News message: May 18 (UTC+8), QCP Capital released its latest market report stating that after BTC had maintained a long-term range of around $80,000, it has now fallen below $78,000. The “long Gamma” effect once suppressed market volatility, but as more than $4 billion worth of IBIT options expired last Friday, this support has clearly weakened. QCP noted that the current macro environment is also continuing to deteriorate, with US Treasury yields rising to new highs for this cycle—U.S. 10-year Treasury yields reached 4.62%, while 30-year yields rose to 5.14%. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY exchange rate has risen to the 158–159 range, approaching the key 160 level, and the market has begun to worry about potential Japanese intervention in the FX market and the risk of unwinding yen carry trades.

The report believes that market sentiment is still mainly pinned on progress in trade negotiations. However, last Friday’s meeting between Trump and China’s leaders did not release any clear details. In addition, as oil prices rise and US inflation remains elevated, the market has started pricing in the probability that the Federal Reserve will further raise interest rates by 25 basis points before January next year; the current expected probability is about 50% to 60%. QCP said that before more clear progress emerges on tariff policy or US-Iran relations, the crypto market is likely to continue with a range-bound, choppy pattern. Although short-term implied volatility briefly spiked during this downturn, it has started to decline again, and selling call option strategies may once again cause BTC prices to fluctuate around the current range. (Source: ODAILY)