#Polymarket每日热点 Is the gold bullish still hopeful? The latest 15-day gold price trend analysis!

Gold news explanation
During the weekend, the unexpectedly high inflation data for April in the US, with CPI year-on-year at 3.8% and PPI year-on-year at 6.0%, continued to dominate market sentiment, completely reversing previous expectations of rate cuts. The market began pricing in the possibility of the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates for a longer period or even restarting rate hikes. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields rose in tandem, exerting continuous pressure on non-yielding assets like gold. Meanwhile, the policy impact of India raising gold import tariffs from 6% to 15% on May 13 continued to manifest. As the world's second-largest gold consumer, the significant weakening of demand further undermines gold price support. Coupled with the traditional off-season for global jewelry consumption in the second quarter, China’s gold jewelry consumption in the first quarter plummeted by 37.10% year-on-year. Overall physical demand remains weak. Under multiple negative factors resonating, international gold prices continued to weaken and fluctuate over the weekend. Domestic gold T+D, Shanghai Gold, and other varieties followed downward, with a strong market bearish sentiment.
As of 8:03 on May 18, the gold market has not shaken off its weak pattern, with macro negative news continuing to dominate the trend. The hawkish expectations for the Federal Reserve further strengthened, the US dollar index approached the 100 mark, and the 10-year US Treasury yield remained high. The cost of holding gold stayed elevated, and institutional funds continued to flow out. International spot gold and COMEX gold futures opened lower and declined in the early trading session. Domestic Shanghai Gold Exchange gold T+D and main futures also opened lower and trended downward, showing a weak oscillation throughout the day, with prices breaking below recent key support levels. Although geopolitical conflicts still exist, the current market pricing has shifted focus to the US dollar interest rate cycle and physical supply and demand. The safe-haven attribute has temporarily failed, compounded by profit-taking from previous high positions, further amplifying downward pressure on gold prices. In the short term, the market remains mainly weak and consolidating, with attention on whether the international gold price around $4,500 per ounce can hold as support.

Gold technical analysis
Currently, on the 4-hour chart, gold has formed a long lower shadow and a bottoming rebound. The short-term moving averages are beginning to diverge downward and flatten gradually. The candlestick is slowly rising above the short-term moving averages, indicating a gradual slowdown in the short-term downward trend. Focus on the resistance around 4570. On the hourly chart, after a bottoming rebound, the technical pattern has started to adjust. The short-term moving averages are gradually turning upward and diverging, suggesting there may still be room for a short-term rebound. Currently, the space in the smaller cycle is quite limited, so watch for short-term adjustments.

Gold trading strategy suggestions
Operation advice: Buy near 4525-4530, stop loss at 4515.1, target 4570-4600, real-time guidance during trading.

The latest 15-day gold price trend analysis indicates that gold is likely to remain in a low-range oscillation, mainly consolidating weakly.
Due to RSI being oversold, there is a possibility of a slight technical rebound correction, but the rebound height is limited, making it difficult to break through the $4600 resistance level. After the rebound, the downward trend is expected to continue, with core focus on whether the $4500 support can hold. If $4500 is broken, the price may accelerate downward to the $4450-4400 range; if support at $4500 holds, the price may consolidate around $4500-4580 to form a base. All content in this article is for market analysis and financial knowledge dissemination only, representing only the personal opinion of JinCe. Content is for reference only. $XAUUSD