📈 $ETH: When Expectations "Not Rising" Do Not Materialize

Previously, I thought Ethereum ($ETH) would have another significant rebound – possibly waiting for clearer legal factors like the approval of the Clarity Act – before officially entering a deeper decline.
📊 My expected scenario is:
• Top coins like Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE), BNB (BNB), XRP (XRP) rebound first.
• Capital then rotates into ETH.
• ETH leads altcoins to surge, triggering widespread FOMO.
• The market peaks amid high excitement.
But the market is always right – and this time it has gone a different way.
📉 Technical Signals Do Not Support
ETH once broke a convincing downtrend line. However:
• The price quickly reversed and fell back below the downtrend line.
• That breakout now looks almost like a “bull trap.”
• Afterwards, ETH even lost the upward trend line of the rebound.
When both factors appear – a false breakdown of the downtrend and breaking the recovery structure – the high probability is that the rebound wave has ended.
This indicates the market no longer has the momentum to continue “catching up,” at least in the short and medium term.
🚀 Which Stage of the Cycle?
If viewed through the cycle structure, ETH may have entered the latter half of the bear market:
• Each rebound is weaker and weaker.
• Buying power is insufficient to sustain breakouts.
• Sentiment is shifting from hope to caution.
This phase is usually no longer the time for “holding onto altseason dreams,” but rather a time to manage risks more carefully than ever.
{spot}(ETHUSDT)