BTC/ETH Review of Last Week and Today’s Market on May 18th

1. Cryptocurrency Market (BTC/ETH)
1. Overall Review of Last Week (May 11 - May 15)
Core logic: Inflation data exceeded expectations, the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations were delayed, risk asset valuations came under pressure, and the market shifted from high-level oscillations to a downward trend.

BTC: Previously pressured at the high of 81,000, continuous attempts to push higher failed, breaking below the key support of 80,000 during the week, closing Friday at 78,500, with the entire week showing weakening oscillations and increasing short contract sentiment.

ETH: Significantly weaker than BTC, with a weekly decline of over 4%, losing the 2,300 support level, with a low of 2,260, on-chain selling pressure combined with no fundamental catalysts, establishing a weak market pattern.
2. Today’s Market (May 18, Intraday)
Market performance: Both markets gapped down at open and continued to decline, dominated by bears.

BTC: Currently around 77,000, breaking below the short-term core support of 78,000, losing the bulls' defensive line, with 24-hour long liquidation, retail bottom-fishing sentiment strong, institutions continuing to shake out. Short-term support is at 76,000-76,300, with resistance at 78,000 and 81,500.

ETH: Currently around 2,210, hitting a new short-term low, ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to weaken, with a persistent bearish trend. Short-term support at 2,150-2,180, resistance at 2,300.

2. U.S. Stock Market (Dow Jones / S&P / NASDAQ)
1. Overall Review of Last Week
Core logic: Sharp divergence at high levels, inflation data shattered market expectations of easing, and high-valuation tech assets came under obvious pressure.

In the first three days, markets oscillated higher to new highs, but on Friday, all indexes sharply retreated, with the Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ closing lower together. Semiconductors and AI tech leaders led the decline, while energy and defensive sectors held up better.

2. Today’s Market (Futures Market)
Weakness persists with a gap down at open, continuing downward. NASDAQ futures led the decline, reflecting ongoing risk aversion in growth stocks. The market currently prices in “the Fed maintaining high interest rates for longer,” and the risk of a correction in high-level indexes has not fully materialized.

3. Short-term Conclusion
Indexes are under pressure at high levels, with no signs of stabilization in the short term. Avoid chasing high-tech stocks; expect a mainly oscillating correction pattern.

3. Cross-Market Linkage Core Summary
1. Main driver: Resilient inflation exceeding expectations → Delayed rate cuts → Global high-risk assets under synchronized pressure;

2. Strengthened linkage: NASDAQ and crypto markets are highly synchronized, with overall risk appetite weak in the short term;

3. Trading core: Follow the trend with a bearish bias, wait for key support signals to stabilize, and do not bottom-fish against the trend.