Will Circle become the biggest beneficiary of RWA? Analysis of the Grayscale $300 billion report and USDC business model

In early May 2026, Grayscale released an in-depth research report that drew widespread attention across the crypto industry. The report put forward a highly imaginative conclusion: roughly $300 trillion of the global securities market, as well as other asset categories such as real estate, will gradually migrate onto the blockchain—tokenization is a “macro trend” that will define the crypto industry over the next decade.

What makes this report especially worth close attention is not only its grand valuation narrative, but also the clear logical modeling it provides for the current tokenization market structure, the protocol competitive landscape, and the paths of evolution. At the same time, the continued rise in momentum of the tokenized asset (RWA) track has also brought a group of publicly listed companies with deep involvement into the view of traditional investors—Circle is one of the most notable research targets among them.

Macroeconomic Background: A Structural Migration Starting from 0.01%

Grayscale’s research report shows that the current global total size of tokenized assets is about $30 billion, while the total size of the global stock and bond markets is close to $300 trillion. The ratio between the two is only about 0.01%. This means that even if the RWA track captures just 1% of the traditional securities market, its potential market size would reach about $3 trillion—nearly 100 times the current scale.

From the growth data, the trend is accelerating: the tokenized asset market’s year-over-year growth rate reached 217%. It is led by U.S. Treasuries (about $15 billion) and commodities (about $5 billion), while categories such as private credit, funds, and stocks are in the early stage of expansion. Another set of data from third-party institutions shows that between January 2025 and April 2026, the tokenized RWA market grew from about $5.8 billion to over $30.8 billion, an increase of 431%.

Zach Pandl, Head of Research at Grayscale, and analyst Will Ogden Moore wrote in the report: “We believe that over time, the approximately $300 trillion securities market worldwide, and other asset classes such as real estate, will eventually gradually migrate onto the blockchain.”

“$300 trillion” is not a precise calculation of the total amount that can be tokenized, but rather a directional valuation framework based on the total size of global financial markets. According to data sources cited by Grayscale in the report—such as SIFMA, Savills, and the World Gold Council—the approximate distribution of major tokenizable asset categories globally is as follows:

Residential real estate: about $280 trillion

Fixed-income securities: about $140 trillion

Global stock market: about $120 trillion

Listed derivatives: about $20 trillion

Commercial real estate: about $35 trillion

Farmland: about $10 trillion

Investment gold: about $3 trillion

(Note: The above figures are estimates from sources such as SIFMA, Savills, and the World Gold Council cited in the Grayscale report. The statistics vary across 2022 to 2025; the specific definitions are subject to the Grayscale report.)

Among them, Savills’ global real estate research released in early 2025 shows that the total value of global real estate has already reached $393.3 trillion, establishing real estate as the largest wealth-storing asset globally. This ladder-like breakdown reveals a core logic: the ceiling for tokenization is far beyond securities. Once a compliant and technically feasible path is found for real estate—the largest asset category globally—it will open up market space dozens of times larger than the current RWA sector.

Core Framework of the Grayscale Report: Six Protocols and a Multi-Chain Division of Labor

In the report, Grayscale names six blockchain protocols that are most likely to benefit from the tokenization trend: Ethereum, Solana, Canton, Avalanche, BNB Chain, and Chainlink.

From a data perspective, the current positioning of each protocol in the RWA ecosystem is as follows:

Canton currently accounts for 93.8% of the total on-chain RWA value. It custodyes more than $39 billion in tokenized assets, making it the ecosystem network with the largest pool of capital in the entire track. Its default privacy protection design mechanism closely matches the compliance and confidentiality needs of traditional financial institutions, which is why it is favored by institutions.

Ethereum holds more than 54% of the distributed RWA market share, custodying about $16 billion in tokenized assets, while also having approximately $50 billion in DeFi total value locked (TVL). Grayscale believes Ethereum continues to lead across dimensions such as market capitalization, developer activity, and the number of applications, giving it the strongest ecosystem network effects.

Solana’s on-chain tokenized asset value exceeds $2 billion, and its transaction throughput exceeds 1,000 transactions per second. Its low-cost characteristics give it differentiated competitiveness in retail scenarios (such as on-chain stock trading).

Grayscale positions Chainlink as the “critical infrastructure layer” within the tokenization theme, responsible for middleware services such as price data, reserve verification, and interoperability—similar to the logic of a “seller of shovels.”

Grayscale’s multi-chain division of labor framework implicitly follows a timeline: in the short term, Canton leads thanks to institutional compatibility; in the long term, Ethereum and Solana will capture larger market space by leveraging the network effects of public chains and their retail distribution capabilities.

If the tokenized asset scale expands from $30 billion to more than $300 billion, the underlying base layer public chains and their ecosystem tokens that support this growth will gain significant “narrative premium” and incremental capital allocation at the valuation level. However, this process will not be linear. The pace of capital allocation between the institutional side (such as privacy networks like Canton) and public chains (such as Ethereum and Solana) may see rebounds in the mid-term.

Where Is the $300 Trillion Data Boundary?

Grayscale’s $300 trillion valuation framework is highly impactful at the industry narrative level, but several key boundaries also need clarification:

First, $300 trillion is the “total amount of tokenizable assets,” not the “scale that will definitively be moved on-chain.” The $300 trillion global securities market includes various stocks, bonds, and derivatives. Many assets cannot be fully on-chained in the foreseeable future due to barriers such as regulatory constraints, liquidity requirements, and technical compatibility. Grayscale also does not provide a specific timetable or a deterministic conversion rate in the report. Its emphasis on directional judgment is conveyed only through phrasing such as “we believe… [it] will gradually migrate.”

Second, the current asset structure of on-chain RWA shows a high degree of centralization. Bond-type assets account for about 60.2% of the total on-chain RWA, precious metals account for about 21.6%, and private credit accounts for about 9.9%. Together, these three exceed 92%. This means that current tokenization practices still heavily rely on traditional financial products with clear yields, transparent valuations, and liquidity. They have not yet broadly covered more complex asset categories such as real estate and equity.

Third, the 0.01% penetration rate is both the source of opportunity and uncertainty. This figure indicates the sector is still in a very early stage. But it also implies that when and at what pace the incremental adoption releases will depend on the coordinated evolution of the regulatory framework, the speed of institutional adoption, and the development of technical infrastructure. Grayscale’s optimistic outlook is built on the premise that “infrastructure continues to improve and regulation becomes clearer.”

Circle’s Investment Value Analysis: How USDC Can Become a Beneficiary of RWA

Aligned with the macro tokenization trend depicted in Grayscale’s report, Circle is currently one of the publicly listed companies in the crypto industry most tightly associated with the RWA theme. Its core business—issuing and circulating USDC—essentially creates, on-chain, a tokenized product that is fully backed by real-world assets (such as U.S. Treasuries and cash equivalents).

Circle’s revenue structure

Circle went public on the New York Stock Exchange on June 5, 2025, with the ticker CRCL, an offering price of $31, and its first day’s close rising to $83.23—an increase of approximately 168%. Its market capitalization reached at one point between $18 billion and $21 billion.

According to the Q1 earnings report data released on May 11, 2026 (this article’s data is based on Gate’s market pricing at May 18, 2026):

Revenue and reserve income: $694 million, up 20% (down from $770 million for Q4 2025)

Reserve income: $653 million, up 17%, the core source of income

Other income (subscriptions, services, and trading): $42.0 million, up about 100%

Adjusted EBITDA: $151 million, up 24%

GAAP net profit: $55.0 million, down 15%

USDC circulation: $77.0 billion, up 28%

USDC on-chain trading volume: $21.5 trillion, up 263%

USDC platform holdings: $13.7 billion, up 3.5x, accounting for 18% of total circulation

(All data comes from Circle’s official Q1 2026 financial report.)

The inherent logic of Circle’s revenue structure

Circle’s revenue depends heavily on interest income generated by USDC reserve assets. USDC reserves are composed of cash and short-term U.S. Treasuries, so the level of Federal Reserve interest rates directly determines its income base. The Q1 reserve yield was 3.5%, down 66 basis points year over year, reflecting the decline in the secured overnight financing rate.

In a high interest-rate environment, Circle’s “money-printing” business model shows strong profitability. The 28% growth in USDC circulation, together with Treasury yields staying at high levels, forms the core driver behind the Q1 year-over-year revenue growth of 20%. But the 15% year-over-year decline in net profit reflects two sources of pressure: first, a sharp rise in one-time costs after going public, such as equity incentives (operating expenses up 76% year over year to $242 million); second, continued high distribution costs.

Notably, in the Q1 earnings report, “other income” doubled year over year to $42.0 million, marking Circle’s initial shift from relying solely on reserve interest toward a more diversified revenue structure.

Circle’s strategic position in the RWA wave

Circle’s connection to the RWA tokenization trend shows up on three levels.

First, USDC itself is one of the largest tokenized RWA assets. Based on $77.0 billion in circulation, the U.S. Treasury reserve behind USDC is itself on-chain “real-world assets.”

Second, Circle is expanding into RWA issuance infrastructure through the Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol (CCTP). During Q1, CCTP transaction volume was close to $50 billion. Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire has said that it will open up usage permissions of CCTP to other asset issuers.

Third, Circle plays a core role in the Canton network. At the end of March 2026, Circle announced that it became a super validator node on the Canton network, directly embedding itself into the largest institutional RWA ecosystem at present. Canton has attracted traditional financial giants such as Goldman Sachs, Nasdaq, J.P. Morgan, and Visa to move real business on-chain. As a stablecoin infrastructure provider within this network, Circle has a clear value positioning as a “pipeline” operator.

CRCL secondary market performance

As of May 12, 2026, CRCL’s stock price was $123.65, with a market cap of about $23.5 billion. According to analysts’ consensus, the median forecast for CRCL earnings per share (EPS) in 2026 is about $0.80, and the median target price is about $135. CRCL’s 52-week high was $298.99, so the current price has fallen by about 58.6% from that peak.

Industry Impact Analysis

Cross-validation between Grayscale’s report and Circle’s revenue data points to several directions that have structural implications for the crypto industry.

The tokenization track is moving from “narrative” to “revenue validation.” The $300 trillion valuation ceiling provided by Grayscale’s report and Circle’s $694 million quarterly real revenue together form the narrative anchor for the RWA theme: one end is the expectation of distant market space, and the other end is verifiable commercial execution capability. This structure of “long-term valuation logic + short-term revenue support” helps the RWA theme attract capital allocations from both crypto-native funds and traditional institutional funds.

The structural competitive landscape among public chains is changing due to RWA expansion. The tokenization wave provides public chains with a second growth curve beyond pure DeFi and NFT applications. Protocols such as Ethereum, Solana, and Canton will compete around “who can carry more institutional assets.” In this competition, compliance capability, privacy technology, and traditional finance integration are becoming competition dimensions as important as TPS and gas fees.

The boundary between stablecoin issuers and RWA issuers is becoming increasingly blurred. Circle is opening CCTP to other asset issuers, BlackRock has launched the BUIDL fund, and protocols such as Ondo Finance continue to expand the scale of tokenized Treasury issuance—these developments indicate that the stablecoin ecosystem and the RWA ecosystem are forming a positive feedback loop: more RWA moved on-chain creates more demand for on-chain trading, which drives growth in USDC circulation; growth in USDC circulation then further feeds Circle’s reserve income.

Conclusion

Grayscale’s assessment of the “$300 trillion macro trend,” in essence, is a long-term thesis about the migration of global capital market infrastructure. It is not a bet on short-term price direction, but a strategic observation of the direction of evolution in underlying financial logic.

Between a 0.01% penetration rate and a potential 100% outcome, the tokenization track leaves the market with a narrative space that needs to be measured in decades. As a key hub connecting real-world assets and on-chain ecosystems, Circle’s value positioning is worth ongoing attention regardless of the pace at which the tokenization story unfolds.