#Polymarket每日热点 The CLARITY Act passed in the Senate Banking Committee by a vote of 15:9, breaking a decade-long stalemate, but the legislation still needs to clear a 60-vote threshold, coordinate between both chambers, and be signed by the president. Currently, all 53 Republicans support it, and it has already gained support from 2 Democratic lawmakers; at least 7 more Democrats are still needed to join. The biggest resistance comes from disagreements over moral clauses and opposition from banking groups to stablecoin yield arrangements, and midterm elections could also change the political landscape. Based on a comprehensive outlook, the probability of passing by 2026 is about 50%-70% (Polymarket shows 68%, TD Cowen is only 40%). Trading strategy suggestions: in the short term, pay attention to the Senate voting timeline; in the medium term, seize structural opportunities arising from clearly defined regulatory responsibilities and the resolution of stablecoin risks, while also keeping short positions to hedge against the risk that moral clauses break down; in the long term, it will only be able to be implemented in earnest in 2027.